[NL20-NL50] 33 bottom set multi pot nl 25 sh

    • dzikson999
      Joined: 17.08.2010 Posts: 532
      PokerStars - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      BB: $32.61
      UTG: $18.21
      MP: $26.06
      CO: $24.30
      Hero (BTN): $25.00
      SB: $25.10

      SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

      Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero has 3:heart: 3:spade:

      fold, MP raises to $0.75, CO calls $0.75, Hero calls $0.75, fold, BB calls $0.50

      Flop: ($3.10, 4 players) 8:heart: 3:club: 7:spade:
      BB checks, MP checks, CO bets $2.12, Hero calls $2.12, fold, fold

      Turn: ($7.34, 2 players) K:club:
      CO bets $4.33, Hero calls $4.33

      River: ($16.00, 2 players) 2:spade:
      CO bets $17.10 and is all-in, Hero calls $17.10
      Villain plays 23/17 , ag F 3, 3 bet 5 %,Wtsd 21%,w&sd 50 %- 250 hands
      This is such dry board so i was afraid that some one might have set also in this multi pot .
      On river over bet shove i was thinkink for long and after all decided to call cause he still can have some 2 pairs maybe missed oesd bluffs i dont know maybe i am to optimistic ?! Should i ever fold set for 100 bb on dry board and is this such a spot ?
  • 1 reply
    • EmanuelC16
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897

      I think calling down is fine but marginal. It's fine because he never puts you on a set so he will value show worse than this imo but it's marginal since there aren't that many worse hands that shove and people rarely bluff shove overbet rivers. I usually prefer raising flop here. There's no flushdraw but it's not that dry. Whenever you have 2 middle cards like 76, 78, 89, T9 multiway, the flop is far from dry. There are many pairs, 2pairs, gutshots, OESDs.

      Now, here it's a bit iffy if we expect to get it in vs 77, 88 and 78s. Can anyone have 78o? Maybe CO himself, that would be ideal. Can we expect some calls from 65, T9s vs our raise? What about 99, TT, JJ that didn't 3bet preflop?

      Overall, getting it win on flop with 33 won't lose you money, that's for sure imo. However, you have to consider if it makes you the most.

      A small river estimate:

      Board: 7:spade: 3:club: 8:heart:  K:club:  2:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    33.35%  33.35%   0.00% { 3h3s }
      MP3    66.65%  66.65%   0.00% { 88-77, TdTs, 87s }

      Basically, if his value range is the tight flop stack off range plus ONE COMBO of anything you beat you have a slight fold since it's a bit of an overbet. If however he has 1.2 combos of worse you probably have to call.