[NL2-NL10] 7high flush on the river, fold

    • Deomedes
      Deomedes
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.11.2011 Posts: 135
      PartyGaming - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      BB: $10.00
      UTG: $10.30
      MP: $6.83
      CO: $19.35
      BTN: $11.19
      Hero (SB): $10.79

      Hero posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has 7:heart: 5:heart:

      UTG calls $0.10, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls $0.05, BB checks

      Flop: ($0.30, 3 players) T:heart: J:club: 8:club:
      Hero checks, BB checks, UTG checks

      Turn: ($0.30, 3 players) 6:heart:
      Hero bets $0.20, fold, UTG calls $0.20

      River: ($0.70, 2 players) A:heart:
      Hero bets $0.50, UTG raises to $1.50, Hero raises to $3.50, UTG raises to $10.00 and is all-in, fold

      UTG wins $7.32

      Guy is totaly unknown plays in 18hands VPIP/PFR/AFq 69/54/45 but i have no reads besides pre-flop looseness.

      What do you think about my river play? Is the raise-fold line valid?
  • 4 replies
    • Dracsharp
      Dracsharp
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.01.2010 Posts: 2,478
      Not valid, i would either call or go broke there, and Ah is out so he may not have many better and he could go broke with set,2p,straight, maybe tp.

      I would go broke.
    • Deomedes
      Deomedes
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.11.2011 Posts: 135
      You say that he can be so aggressive to turn made hand into a bluff like Top pair. But at the same time he did check back overcards on the flop.

      If he had two pair like AT, AJ why he did not bet on the flop? A8, A6 makes some sense but still shoving over a 3bet on that river card is a strong move that makes me want reads to believe that he would do it that light.

      He can go all in on the river with a set? What set? On a very wet flop like that he checks back a set and calls a lead IP with it on the turn? That's not likely.

      So we are leftout with the straight which is only KQ and a flop straight Q9, 79 that agian did not protect vs the clubs draw but wait another flush to hit so as to value extract.

      I am left with KQ . Can he play it like that ? I do not know.

      I went with my predetermined action to raise-fold and trusted my instinct when he snap-shoved it.

      Might have been weak to fold but i thought that there was value in raising but not calling an all in.
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Deomedes,

      Preflop: I'm not a huge fan of the limp there with 75s especially if BB is a regular. The draws we can flop won't be too strong and we flop 2p+ roughly 5% of the time only

      Postflop: As played I agree with Dracsharp. On that river especially villain could have 2p or even KQ that could overplay and while there are combos of better flushes in his range you only need about 30% pot odds.

      So we either just call his reraise to begin with or go with the hand.

      Now with more info on villain, or with a different line postflop I would agree that normally a 4-bet on that river is mostly only a flush.
    • Deomedes
      Deomedes
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.11.2011 Posts: 135
      Ok i just found out how few combinations of flushes remained ,and excluding the most ridiculous ones, he just had to overplay the KQ 1/4 times to make it profitable call which makes it a clearly a profitable call.

      I never payed attention about how few higher combinations of flushes do really exist when you have one. They are really few.

      So i had to go with the hand but i guess something like that got to happen for me to notice about that theory leak i had.

      Still i do not see many hands being overplayed here but i do not need many anyways.

      Thnx for the replies.