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[NL20-NL50] AA Baluga Theorem

    • daisuke3823
      Joined: 05.02.2008 Posts: 8,321
      Hand converted with online hand converter:


      $0.1/$0.25 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)

      Known players:
      MP2 (Hero):

      Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A, A.
      Hero raises to $0.75, MP3 calls $0.75, CO folds, BU calls $0.75, 2 folds, BB folds.

      Flop: ($2.6) K, T, 5 (3 players)
      Hero bets $1.70, MP3 calls $1.70, BU calls $1.70.

      Turn: ($7.7) Q (3 players)
      Hero bets $4.80, MP3 raises to $9.60, BU folds, Hero folds, MP3 gets uncalled bet back.

      Final Pot: $12.5.

      bU in 15 hands vpip29 pfr7 af0,5
      mP in 7 hands vpip57 pfr29 af1

      I folded as Baluga Theorem says.
      should I call here?
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      I think this theorem applies even more when board further coordinates. I'm not sure if they would overplay QT and KT here (but if they do they have you crushed). I also think they can easily have J9 or AJ a lot of the time. And of course KQ is a good part of their ranges.

      So this is a really standard bet/fold. Question is whether we should even bet the Turn. I think it's close, and since there's a huge fish in the pot I don't mind it too much. He could have KJ K9 K8, QJ JT AT AQ etc which may call the turn again with pairs + gutshot.