[NL20-NL50] NL50 6max, XX, 3bet paired flop

    • Anger86
      Joined: 17.08.2008 Posts: 511
      $50.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players

      UTG: $64.65 - VPIP: 20, PFR: 17, 3B: 7, AF: 4.2, Hands: 990
      MP: $83.80 - VPIP: 19, PFR: 15, 3B: 6, AF: 1.8, Hands: 595
      CO: $34.95 - VPIP: 61, PFR: 35, 3B: 27, AF: 3.0, Hands: 31
      Hero (BTN): $58.15 - VPIP: 24, PFR: 21, 3B: 11, AF: 4.9, Hands: 119397
      SB: $53.90 - VPIP: 18, PFR: 16, 3B: 7, AF: 6.4, Hands: 655
      BB: $94.95 - VPIP: 22, PFR: 14, 3B: 7, AF: 1.1, Hands: 279

      Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BTN with XX
      2 folds, CO raises to $1.75, Hero raises to $5.50, 2 folds, CO calls $3.75

      Flop: ($11.75) Q :club: Q :heart: 9 :heart: (2 players)
      CO checks, Hero bets $5.50, CO calls $5.50

      Turn: ($22.75) 6 :club: (2 players)
      CO checks, Hero checks

      River: ($22.75) 6 :heart: (2 players)
      CO bets $22.75, Hero folds

      IMO, betting 1 street is a mistake. It should be a 2bar o fold out TT-JJ or x/f Flop.
      On the other side I see in my database that paired 3 broadway flops are
      pretty though to win without a hand, which is different for a flop like Kxxr, Qxxr, etc, which is +++EV for me.

      I'm also considering to take into account timing tells.
      For ex, If they check fast OOP, they usually have smthg like mid PP's.

      The problem for them folding is that they might be non-believers,
      especially on paired flops.

      Still see some reasonalbe success for my turn bets, but only IP.

      When I'm on the blinds = I see they don't like folding at all. Also I don't have that good timing tells.

      So, often I'll hand read them decently well, especially IP. What I cant say is If I get them to fold on these boards.

      Just by clicking on HEM filters:
      Uploaded with ImageShack.us

      I see some good news for future to x/f them a lot. A LOT. Or maybe barrel this one?

      PS: His river sizing. :D NUTS, which wanted to x/r or smthg :)
  • 1 reply
    • cutegoldfish
      Joined: 19.11.2009 Posts: 4,335
      Trying to fold out a hand like TT or JJ is a bad plan especially against a fish with a high vpip. He they are not giving up that hand most of the time, even on a QQ9 flop

      I think it's fine to bet flop for value against hands like JK TJ KT etc if you have a value hand.

      You might want to check his aggression on the river, some fishes do bluff on the river when he does not hit. If he happens to have a very high aggression or docking on the turn I'm bluffcatching with a hand like 9 pair.

      Otherwise it's a fold on the river