[NL2-NL10] co A9, sick

    • Imimba1
      Imimba1
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.12.2011 Posts: 2,897
      Poker Stars $5.00 No Limit Hold'em - 4 players - View hand 2069919
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      BTN: $5.00 - VPIP: 27, PFR: 20, 3B: 9, AF: 0,5, Hands: 85
      SB: $5.44 - VPIP: 19, PFR: 14, 3B: 8, AF: 5,3, Hands: 725
      BB: $2.45 - VPIP: 62, PFR: 4, 3B: 2, AF: 7,0, Hands: 286, 86% donk, WTS:23, donk/raise: 1/20 (first time)
      Hero (CO): $9.97 - VPIP: 21, PFR: 16, 3B: 4, AF: 2,0, Hands: 87677

      Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is CO with A :diamond: 9 :diamond:
      Hero raises to $0.15, BTN calls $0.15, 1 fold, BB calls $0.10

      Flop: ($0.47) 9 :club: 6 :spade: 5 :diamond: (3 players)
      BB bets $0.15, Hero raises to $0.65, BTN folds, BB raises to $2.30, Hero?

      With donk/raise 1/20, I guess he's pretty nutted here

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 16.41% 15.88% 0.53% Ad9d
      MP3 83.59% 83.05% 0.53% JJ-99, 66-55, 87s, 65s, 87o, 65o
  • 3 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi.

      I think this is one of those cases where you can raise for value since your A9 is crushing his small donkbet range, but you can fold to a 3bet since you are now losing to his 3betting range.

      That's provided he has 100bb and has more room to barrel future streets.

      But given his 25bb stack, I don't think I can ever find a fold here. Add the facft that he has a high donk % of 86%, a high AF of 7.0, super high VPIP of 62 (he can have so many 9X like K9 Q9 J9 T9 89 79 etc), we have to call here.
    • Imimba1
      Imimba1
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.12.2011 Posts: 2,897
      Originally posted by mbml
      Hi.

      I think this is one of those cases where you can raise for value since your A9 is crushing his small donkbet range, but you can fold to a 3bet since you are now losing to his 3betting range.

      That's provided he has 100bb and has more room to barrel future streets.

      But given his 25bb stack, I don't think I can ever find a fold here. Add the facft that he has a high donk % of 86%, a high AF of 7.0, super high VPIP of 62 (he can have so many 9X like K9 Q9 J9 T9 89 79 etc), we have to call here.
      He has 50bb
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Oh sorry, thought it was NL10, since I was looking at your stack size.

      Your pot odds are 33% (1.65/5)

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 70.23% 64.74% 5.49% JJ-99, 66-55, A9s, K9s, 87s, 65s, A9o, K9o, 87o, 65o
      MP3 29.77% 24.28% 5.49% Ad9d

      (With all monsters, some overpairs and A9/K9)

      If we add Q9 too

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 63.34% 58.35% 4.99% JJ-99, 66-55, A9s, K9s, Q9s, 87s, 65s, A9o, K9o, Q9o, 87o, 65o
      MP3 36.66% 31.67% 4.99% Ad9d

      So if he does this with Q9+, we have to call it off. If he flats more overpairs besides JJ and TT, we have to fold.

      I think I am leaning towards a fold. If pot odds are slightly more favourable, I might find a call (I think this breakeven point is around 30-40bb if im not wrong).