[NL2-NL10] NL25, ATs, BB

  • 6 replies
    • shloogy
      shloogy
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.04.2008 Posts: 263
      well played
    • DeKuip
      DeKuip
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.03.2008 Posts: 10,966
      I can't imagine that going all-in on the flop is profitable.
      You hardly have any FE and you can only hope for a :heart: or an A, maybe also the T.

      I just don't think you get the odds to push this one, but I'm probably missing other factors that are important.

      I mean, with what hand can he openlimp from SB and donk this flop.
      He must have hit something here, what means that in most cases you're behind.

      I thought I would let PokerStove do some calculations here.
      I entered every possible hand that could give Villain a pair here, this is the result:

      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 48.608% 48.60% 00.01% 167421 45.00 { AhTh }
      Hand 1: 51.392% 51.38% 00.01% 177009 45.00 { A6s, A4s, K6s, K4s, Q2s+, J6s, J4s, T6s, T4s, 96s, 94s, 86s, 84s, 76s, 74s, 62s+, 54s, 42s+, A6o, A4o, K6o, K4o, Q2o+, J6o, J4o, T6o, T4o, 96o, 94o, 86o, 84o, 76o, 74o, 62o+, 54o, 42o+ }

      Now I'm not really into all these calculations and stuff and I'm not sure if I did this right, so please let me know if I'm doing something terribly wrong.

      As said, I'm just assuming that Villain hit something on this flop, I left out QQ, 66, 44, KQ and AQ.

      So you have 48% equity. And it looks like if that is enough to go all-in here.
      I'm really curious what the judges think of this hand.

      I would also appreciate it if somebody who know more about this could give some comments about this post with my thoughts and calculations.

      Thanks.
    • shloogy
      shloogy
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.04.2008 Posts: 263
      take a look at his AF and u will understand why.
    • DeKuip
      DeKuip
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.03.2008 Posts: 10,966
      Originally posted by shloogy
      take a look at his AF and u will understand why.
      I'm rather new with all the stats, so those numbers hardly say anything to me (I'm reading the articles about it and starting to understand the VPIP and PFR now). However, I've also learned that stats should be based on at least 50 hands to make them trustworthy, that's why I pretty much ignored the stats in this case..
    • shloogy
      shloogy
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.04.2008 Posts: 263
      sample was not that big, but 4.0 is sometime that hard to ignore.usually mean that he bet almost every pot.

      furthermore, he had maybe two overs vs villain's mid pair, runner runner str8 draw and flush draw.sometimes maybe the Ace also helps.add folding Eq and this is pretty much EV+.
    • ysessa
      ysessa
      Basic
      Joined: 11.07.2008 Posts: 1,331
      Hi burek2000,

      I really like your push here, you will have some fold equity which will boost your ev and against 1 pair hands like KQ you still have 45% equity, when he has a set in this spot well you still have your fdraw.