[NL2-NL10] 19 5 t2

    • Dracsharp
      Dracsharp
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.01.2010 Posts: 2,478
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      SB ($5.28)
      Hero ($10)
      UTG ($19.14)
      UTG+1 ($13.83)
      CO ($15.08)
      BTN ($6.70)

      Dealt to Hero 2:spade: T:club:

      fold, UTG+1 calls $0.10, fold, BTN calls $0.10, SB calls $0.05, Hero checks

      FLOP ($0.40) 7:club: T:diamond: 2:diamond:

      SB checks, Hero bets $0.36, UTG+1 folds, BTN calls $0.36, SB folds

      TURN ($1.12) 7:club: T:diamond: 2:diamond: 5:spade:

      Hero bets $0.80, BTN calls $0.80

      RIVER ($2.72) 7:club: T:diamond: 2:diamond: 5:spade: Q:club:

      Hero bets $1.30, BTN raises to $5.44 (AI), Hero folds

      BTN wins $4.97

  • 5 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi.

      I would pot every river simply because we have so much value. I agree with the bet/fold on the River.

      Basic rule of thumb is "never go broke without the nuts in a limped pot". Basically as stack:pot ratio increases greatly (especially in limped pots), the hand strength needed to play for stacks dramatically increases.

      That probably applies here. I think our twopair is way too weak to play for stacks here. I expect villain to have picked up QT a lot. And I'm never putting him on a bluff when we showed considerable strength betting into 3 other players and 3barreling

      Thanks.
    • Dracsharp
      Dracsharp
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.01.2010 Posts: 2,478
      Why would you pot river, he is most likely on t,7 or draw.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      With 7X, he probably folds River anyway
      With TX he probably calls always
      With a draw, it doesn't matter whether we bet large or small cos he just folds always.

      I think he has way more TX than 7X. Also I think he usually folds 7X even vs a smaller bet.

      And if we full pot instead of halfpot, we earn halfpot more (in this case 1.40 more vs his TX hands).
    • Dracsharp
      Dracsharp
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.01.2010 Posts: 2,478
      But he has less tx because i have a T too. I was not convinced 50vpip fella would just muck the sevens here he held so dearly before.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      He might have high W TSD but having him call 3 barrels here with 7X with 2 broadway cards on the board is really optimistic.

      And while you block one T yourself, he simply plays more TX combos preflop.
      AT/KT/QT/JT/T9/T8/T7s/T6s/T5s (I think he always plays all these hands)
      A7/K7/Q7/J7/T7/97/87/76 (I think you must discount some of these combos)

      Let's compare our two options here. I'll make the assumption that he has equal number of TX and 7X combos.

      Halfpot bet:
      With 7X, he always calls
      With TX, he always calls

      Fullpot bet:

      With TX, he always calls
      With 7X, he always folds

      If my assumptions stated above are true, then the EV of both plays are equal. However IMO,

      1) He doesn't always call 7X vs a half pot bet. I think he folds pretty often. Let's assume he calls somewhere between 1/3-1/2 the time. I think that's reasonable

      2) You assume he has more 7X combos than TX combos since there are 3 7s left in the deck, compared to 2 TX combos. Even if I discount TX combos to some extent, given 1), I think EV of full potting still > EV of half potting.