[NL2-NL10] 19 7 qt

    • Dracsharp
      Dracsharp
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.01.2010 Posts: 2,478
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      SB ($3)
      BB ($10)
      UTG ($11.20)
      Hero ($13.24)
      CO ($27.49)
      BTN ($5.60)

      Dealt to Hero Q:diamond: T:diamond:

      fold, Hero raises to $0.30, fold, BTN calls $0.30, fold, fold

      FLOP ($0.75) 2:club: 7:heart: 7:club:

      Hero bets $0.50, BTN calls $0.50

      TURN ($1.75) 2:club: 7:heart: 7:club: T:club:

      Hero checks, BTN checks

      RIVER ($1.75) 2:club: 7:heart: 7:club: T:club: 6:diamond:

      Hero bets $0.80, BTN raises to $1.60, Hero calls $0.80

      Hero shows Q:diamond: T:diamond:
      (Pre 62%, Flop 0.6%, Turn 4.5%)

      BTN shows 7:spade: 8:spade:
      (Pre 38%, Flop 99.4%, Turn 95.5%)

      BTN wins $4.62

  • 5 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,697
      Hi.

      I agree villain's line doesn't make too much sense. Why would he check back turn, and then raise the River? Unless he had something which is improved by the River, like 89 (unlikely) or 66 (perhaps) or 67 (perhaps?)

      Other than that, I think we should look at AF of opponent. He just seems really passive postflop. I think he is more likely to play 7X or a flush weird, as opposed to being on a bluff and turning some AX or 55 into a bluff. So I bet/fold here.

      But I would bet slightly bigger on the River, expecting to get more value. So I'll bet 1$ on the River.

      Thanks.
    • Dracsharp
      Dracsharp
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.01.2010 Posts: 2,478
      Value for what 2x is pretty weak there 33,44,55 has 3 overs and a completed flush , 88,99 only has one over. Targetting ax is not unreasonable here either.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,697
      Your points are valid, though I think he would be somewhat indifferent between 80c and 1$. Yeah maybe you can go for 95 or 99 cents instead, since it seems smaller than 1$ to the unsophisticated mind.

      There might be some psychological effect, which is why you often see shops and supermarkets charging .99 instead of .00.
    • Dracsharp
      Dracsharp
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.01.2010 Posts: 2,478
      I know plus many players i think think that under half pot bets are weak, least i prompted many weak calldowns by using 40-45% pot instead of 50-55% at the river, least that is what i believe, once bet is under halfpot people think about bluffcatching you with garbage.

      Can't we reason for calling the river even if seems thin because he checked the turn ? he is not that passive on the river

      (we could be seen as stabbing at the board as bluff to take it cheaply)
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,697
      I can hardly consider 1.8 as aggressive. It probably just means that he occasionally bluffs busted draws. There are a ton of loose passive types out there with very high river AFs of 3 or more, while their Flop and Turn AFs are 1+. This is because they always call really wide on earlier streets and bluff on the river when checked to, or just donk bluff OOP.

      Most of their aggression is not from raising bets.

      And in my opinion you should always have been aware and have already planned ahead of what to do vs a raise. I just think that this guy bluff raises way less often than you think, and is much likelier to play tricky with 7X/flushes.