[NL2-NL10] 19 12 a8

    • Dracsharp
      Dracsharp
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.01.2010 Posts: 2,478
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      SB ($13.38)
      BB ($9.80)
      Hero ($14.30)
      CO ($11.40)
      BTN ($5.28)

      Dealt to Hero A:spade: 8:spade:

      Hero raises to $0.30, fold, fold, SB calls $0.25, fold

      FLOP ($0.70) Q:spade: 6:spade: 4:heart:

      SB checks, Hero checks

      TURN ($0.70) Q:spade: 6:spade: 4:heart: K:diamond:

      SB bets $0.50, Hero calls $0.50

      RIVER ($1.70) Q:spade: 6:spade: 4:heart: K:diamond: Q:heart:

      SB bets $1, Hero calls $1

      SB shows 9:heart: K:heart:
      (Pre 42%, Flop 17.7%, Turn 72.7%)

      Hero shows A:spade: 8:spade:
      (Pre 58%, Flop 82.3%, Turn 27.3%)

      SB wins $3.46

  • 7 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,698
      Hi.

      In general at lower limits, I really do not see any good reason to check back a Flop. Maybe at higher limits, you may want to check behind the Flop with some flush draws for balance and deception. But people mostly do that with baby flush draws, because those are draws which cannot really bet/call on the Flop.

      With nut flush draws, we can easily bet and call a raise since we dominate all the weaker flush draws and we have showdown value if let's say we call the Turn as well, and villain checks the River. We can check back and beat all worse draws.

      So here, my line is to bet the Flop and Turn for sure. I would give up on this Queen pairing river.

      Thanks.
    • Dracsharp
      Dracsharp
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.01.2010 Posts: 2,478
      This is not really the guy we could bluff out of the pot, would you consider going broke with this ?

      Again i mention i often feel fold to cbet is misrepresented because of fishes, he does most of the folding in multi, but not many in hu, he lives for bluffing, and also we were playing for quite a while he knew i knew he is aggro and abused it but he knew i try to counter him with value so later he abused by cbetting smaller and getting away from pots. Later in the session it seemed he got the sweater end of our deal.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,698
      Hi,

      Do you mean betting Flop and then 3betting and stacking off on the Flop? I don't think that's a good idea. Just bet and call the raise. As I did mention, your Ace high has showdown value. If he is bluffing with a worse draw you can always showdown your Ace. if he tries to rep any turned or river flush, you have your implied odds.

      Given how often he is just randomly checkraising the Flop with 37% CR, I think checking back smaller flush draws like 8s9s is reasonable.

      For example in this hand, I would expect him to c/r the Flop and bet this Turn with his entire air range (he doesn't always have KX, in fact he misses the King most of the time assuming his CR range is wide).

      So what typically happens is that he bets F and T and gives up River. And we win. Or he barrels his entire stack on some spades which fall 1/3 of the time on the T+R and we get his entire stack.
    • Dracsharp
      Dracsharp
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.01.2010 Posts: 2,478
      Sounds good but now add him raising and betting unless flush hits and if it don't he knows since i am weak because i haven't reraised him so he will finish it. He knows i would slap him hard if i have something strong, so i am either i am on calldown with a pair or on a draw. I am not convinced of your very optimistic prediction, he would make us pay big and fold if we hit. We have good enough hand to pay but why pay so much when you can have it for free, or cheaper, all based on a marginal cbet play to make him fold, and to take a free turn, but if our a high is good against his bluff we can bluffcatch him later anyway as i did.

      His river cbet is 80%
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,698
      Well we could go at this all day.

      EV of betting Flop and having control

      Now compare checking to betting the Flop and then taking it down immediately. Or he doesn't raise us and we bet the Turn and he folds. You are assuming he raises the Flop every single time which is not true.

      Implied Odds when we hit - Remember there is a lot of money left behind

      And compare this to him bluffing at an Ace (and we snap). Assuming we have a 12 outer to a flush or Ace, I'll expect to hit something by the River 40% of the time which is really a lot. And we have the implied odds for sure when this guy is going to barrel so often.

      He doesn't always follow through, despite what you think

      I think he could also give up maybe 1/3 of the time. Let's just assume the barrel stats are correct. So he ends up 3 barreling 80% X 80% of the time which is 64% of the time. We will just win very often at showdown 1/3 of the time.

      And our range is by no means, capped in any way. We would always play our monsters like that too vs him in position.

      Let's just put it this way. You have so much equity on the Flop that you should always bet. It could even be seen as a "value-bet" which induces, given that you are doing so well against his super wide CR range.
    • Dracsharp
      Dracsharp
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.01.2010 Posts: 2,478
      Thanks you convinced me, i like asking questing until it's clear :)

      Aggros tend to make me play fit or fold, i have a hard time correctly adjusting to them, it does feel like he always checkraises me but i know that was not the case.

      Would you cbet a "baby" fd too ?
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,698
      I think this is a good spot to check back a baby flush draw for sure. It's not really a hand which I would want to bet and call a raise with, given that we are dominated by higher flush draws.

      At the same time, our hand is really deceptive. And this guy may not put us on a flush if we do hit and maybe he spazzes out if we raise on a spade? who knows.

      So basically I always bet JsXs and better, I would consider checking back TsXs and worse.