[NL20-NL50] NL50 SH - 99: vs mss

    • Lunitis
      Lunitis
      Gold
      Joined: 22.02.2009 Posts: 20,132
      SB:
      27/21
      2.6 af
      13.1% 3bet (12% oop vs MP)
      28% fold vs 4bet (18)
      98% cbet flop 3bet pot
      57% cbet turn 3bet pot (23)
      18% agg% river
      2.6k hands

      BB: reg with 9% squeeze

      Hero (MP): $78.61 (157.2 bb)
      CO: $54.83 (109.7 bb)
      BTN: $46.27 (92.5 bb)
      SB: $38.05 (76.1 bb)
      BB: $60.19 (120.4 bb)
      UTG: $50.63 (101.3 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is MP with 9:heart: 9:diamond:
      UTG folds, Hero raises to $1.50, 2 folds, SB raises to $4, BB folds, Hero calls $2.50

      Flop: ($8.50) 3:heart: 2:club: 4:heart: (2 players)
      SB bets $5, Hero calls $5

      Turn: ($18.50) Q:diamond: (2 players)
      SB bets $10.50, Hero ..

      I felt that 99 was a bit weak to get in here. If he had the standard 40bbs i might get in here. But with 37$ i would get in maybe TT/AK.
  • 4 replies
    • MatejM47
      MatejM47
      Black
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 1,193
      TT+ is only 2% of starting hands which means that 6 out of 7 times you have the best hand on this flop. If you call preflop then you pretty much have to raise and ship this type of flop else you get barreled off your hand or see overcards. You just won't win the hand very often by calling the flop. If your not comfortable shipping this flop then fold pre.
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      Hey,

      Is he a midstakcer that won some pots?

      I agree with Matej about flop play here. True midstacker have some worse pairs than 99 in their range and many many overcards/flushdraws here to make it OK to stack off. You have to remember that the shorter the stacks you are facing the more often you get it all in on an early street and thus you never really get it in way ahead when considering range vs range analysis because ranges are reasonably wide on both sides.
    • Lunitis
      Lunitis
      Gold
      Joined: 22.02.2009 Posts: 20,132
      Pretty sure he is an MSS that won some pots.
      Didnt thought about the raise flop, that sounds good, he might spew AK/AQ, i wasnt expecting many underpairs..
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      Yep,

      Get it in range approximation:


      Board: 3:heart: 2:club: 4:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    23.14%  21.92%   1.22% { 9d9h }
      MP3    76.86%  75.64%   1.22% { TT+, AhKh, AhQh, KhQh, AhJh, KhJh, QhJh, AhTh, KhTh, QhTh, JhTh, Ah8h, Ah7h, 8h7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah2h }



      Sure, you look kind of screwed but think of how often he actually folds. I'd say this is close to the worst case scenario for you. I've seen midstackers to silly stuff with some A high's here and I wouldn't completely 88 from their range. They are used to playing a 3bet/4bet game preflop very aggressively and not to play postflop. They get in early quite often and 88 goes up in value when they are so aggro.

      Ah with Kx and 88 + instead of TT+:


      Board: 3:heart: 2:club: 4:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    32.89%  30.79%   2.10% { 9d9h }
      MP3    67.11%  65.01%   2.10% { 88+, AhKh, AhQh, KhQh, AhJh, KhJh, QhJh, AhTh, KhTh, QhTh, JhTh, Ah8h, Ah7h, 8h7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah2h, AhKd, AhKs, AhKc }



      I think sometimes you could 4bet preflop.. for 40-50bbs I'd just shove but for 75 it's a bit too much.