[NL2-NL10] QJ flop turn ?

    • staselu
      staselu
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2008 Posts: 532
      IPoker Network $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 2070648
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      UTG: $11.10 58/27 agfactor 5.0 wts 45 hands 30
      CO: $9.85
      BTN: $9.36
      SB: $10.05
      Hero (BB): $10.29

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BB with Q :diamond: J :spade:
      UTG calls $0.10, 3 folds, Hero raises to $0.50, UTG calls $0.40

      Flop: ($1.05) 9 :heart: T :diamond: 6 :heart: (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.78, UTG raises to $1.56, Hero calls $0.78

      Turn: ($4.17) 2 :spade: (2 players)
      Hero checks, UTG checks

      River: ($4.17) A :club: (2 players)
      Hero checks, UTG checks

      Flop:
      pot odds 4.35:1
      I think we have here ~7 outs (discount 1 out :heart:)
      we have only 6:1 odds from flop to the turn
      on the turn if we hit our outs, we need to get from our opponent (4.68-3.39=1.29$) 1.29$, he raised our flop cbet , that means he has a strong hand wich can pay us on future streets
  • 5 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Staselu,

      Preflop: looks fine

      Postflop: His raise flop cbet doesn't necessarily mean strength unless we know more about villain and don't expect him to bluff/semibluff

      We get 19% pot odds to see the turn and have roughly 6 clean outs for just 12% so we do need implied odds. However some cards like the 8 can give villain a worse straight that can pay up.

      And since he is fishy we should have some better implied odds.

      As played why not bet the river with our Q high? We can possibly get him to fold some K high or weak pair like 6x.
    • ThatGuyMatt
      ThatGuyMatt
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.12.2010 Posts: 3,758
      Originally posted by staselu
      I think we have here ~7 outs (discount 1 out :heart:)
      Why have you only discounted 1 :heart: ? The K and 8 are both :heart: 's

      I take it you have put villain on a range as you don't include any J's or Q's as outs either?
    • staselu
      staselu
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2008 Posts: 532
      yes , i should discount 2 outs :)
    • staselu
      staselu
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2008 Posts: 532
      he raised my cbet on the flop, I think he can have some strong hands in his range, he showed weakness on the turn by checking, but he has vpip 58 pfr 27 wts 45 on 28 hands, it looks he likes to see the showdown
      would you bluff in this spot ?
      Thanks
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by staselu
      he raised my cbet on the flop, I think he can have some strong hands in his range, he showed weakness on the turn by checking, but he has vpip 58 pfr 27 wts 45 on 28 hands, it looks he likes to see the showdown
      would you bluff in this spot ?
      Thanks
      Some fishy guys like to bluff the flop and then give up so I think we can consider betting river since our showdown value is poor.