[NL2-NL10] 20 8 ak

    • Dracsharp
      Dracsharp
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.01.2010 Posts: 2,478
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      SB ($10)
      BB ($10)
      Hero ($14.10)
      CO ($29.14)
      BTN ($11.60)

      Dealt to Hero A:heart: K:spade:

      Hero raises to $0.35, CO calls $0.35, fold, SB calls $0.30, BB calls $0.25

      FLOP ($1.40) T:club: J:club: T:spade:

      SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $0.80, CO folds, SB calls $0.80, BB folds

      TURN ($3) T:club: J:club: T:spade: J:heart:

      SB bets $1.50, Hero folds

      SB wins $2.80

      Cbet ?

      CO


      SB


      BB unknown
  • 7 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Dracsharp,

      Preflop: looks fine

      Postflop: I don't like our bet 4way here on this type of board. I doubt we ever have the FE to get people to fold here and our equity is not the greatest.

      So check/fold is my preferred line.

      As an exercise equilab the 3 ranges on such a board and compare what % each hit and can continue with. This exercise may take a while but it could prove to be a valuable lesson.

      As a side note you only show CO and SB, is BB unknown?
    • Dracsharp
      Dracsharp
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.01.2010 Posts: 2,478
      Yeah he was, it gave me 20% but better think about it

      Tx unlikely
      Jx more possible but i have about 25% on that
      Fd too but i actually valuebet those
      pp -s likely fold to this 2 over multi pot
      j+ pp is unlikely
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by Dracsharp
      Yeah he was, it gave me 20% but better think about it

      Tx unlikely
      Jx more possible but i have about 25% on that
      Fd too but i actually valuebet those
      pp -s likely fold to this 2 over multi pot
      j+ pp is unlikely
      Why are Tx and Jx unlikely? We can assume that most broadways are in their ranges, especially the suited ones as we get more callers.

      So there is potential for a lot of Tx, Jx and other hands that don't fold.

      Sure we may have the upper hand on some draws but how we can continue on future streets is important (once called). How do you see continuing? Betting a blank? checking back and calling river?
    • Dracsharp
      Dracsharp
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.01.2010 Posts: 2,478
      C/f later, i knew flop cbet is marginal but i had a,k,q as likely outs which plus high but paired board which they could have hit but can make fold many pp-s.

      It isn't even marginal ? We have decent eq.
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by Dracsharp
      C/f later, i knew flop cbet is marginal but i had a,k,q as likely outs which plus high but paired board which they could have hit but can make fold many pp-s.

      It isn't even marginal ? We have decent eq.
      HU sure, but 4-handed?

      Your A and K have reverse implied odds more often than not. If you turn an A or K how much money are you comfortable putting into the pot, that's already a sizeable amount due to 4 people seeing the flop.
    • Dracsharp
      Dracsharp
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.01.2010 Posts: 2,478
      Fd-s will have a weaker one Jx will have the most of A or k i should be worried about but even if i hit we are not looking to invest more than 2 street overall, expect with on q.
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by Dracsharp
      Fd-s will have a weaker one Jx will have the most of A or k i should be worried about but even if i hit we are not looking to invest more than 2 street overall, expect with on q.
      Yes sure, some FDs will have a weaker one. But for each FD that can call there is at least one Tx combo. Remember that AT has 2*3= 6 combos while A2 cc is one.

      So let's look combo wise.

      At = 6
      Kt = 6
      Qt = 8
      Jt = 6
      T9 = 2-8 (may be less for first callers, but by the time it gets to BB he can have them)
      T8 = 2-8
      T7 = 2

      Worse case there are 32 combos of Tx.

      Now do the same for Jx (should be more combos). We can add some combos of pairs that may call there once although it would be light.

      And then get down to draws.

      QK has best case 12 combos, 89 4-12, some Q9 (4). FDs are one each so you are looking best case at all Ax c (minus maybe AK/AQcc) 8 combos, and then you work your way down.

      So draws don't really outnumber the made hands as much as you may think they do.