[NL2-NL10] 20 11 qk

    • Dracsharp
      Dracsharp
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.01.2010 Posts: 2,478
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      SB ($9.35)
      BB ($15.12)
      Hero ($12.29)
      CO ($6.85)
      BTN ($25.31)

      Dealt to Hero Q:diamond: K:diamond:

      Hero raises to $0.35, CO calls $0.35, fold, fold, BB calls $0.25

      FLOP ($1.10) 8:diamond: T:club: A:diamond:

      BB checks, Hero bets $0.70, CO folds, BB raises to $1.40, Hero raises to $4, BB calls $2.60

      TURN ($9.10) 8:diamond: T:club: A:diamond: 3:spade:

      BB checks, Hero bets $7.94 (AI), BB folds

      Hero shows Q:diamond: K:diamond:

      Hero wins $8.50

  • 9 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Dracsharp,

      Preflop: looks fine

      Postflop: What range do we give this nit for raising us multiway on that flop?

      Based on your action you think he can minraise worse draws or bluffs there. Do we have any history that you didn't post?

      Given we have position I'd simply call the flop and if he bluffed we can easily take this away on the turn. Your move tells me that you really want him to fold an Ax hand and nitty guys (especially showdown happy ones) will rarely ever fold that to you, if he even raised that.
    • Dracsharp
      Dracsharp
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.01.2010 Posts: 2,478
      Well once he just called he limited himself to draws tp-s and 2p-s , if he didn't feel comfortable pushing it against me on the flop he very likely folds it here.

      My hand was good enough to play like this ,

      A,
      He folds his minraise

      B,
      pushes TT,88,ATs,A8s,T8s,KdTd,QdTd,JdTd,Jd9d,Td9d,ATo,A8o
      i have 41%

      C,
      call then folds turn very likely
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by Dracsharp
      Well once he just called he limited himself to draws tp-s and 2p-s , if he didn't feel comfortable pushing it against me on the flop he very likely folds it here.

      My hand was good enough to play like this ,

      A,
      He folds his minraise

      B,
      pushes TT,88,ATs,A8s,T8s,KdTd,QdTd,JdTd,Jd9d,Td9d,ATo,A8o
      i have 41%

      C,
      call then folds turn very likely
      What assumption are you going in when you 3-bet your hand preflop, that you have some/much FE or that we have little/none because villain is nitty?

      I think that 3-bet/call is overplaying your hand here. Of course after we 3-bet we give ourselves enough odds but the question comes in before that.


      Most of the hands that played like this (call your 3-bet, fold turn) will most likely fold to us later on if we just call flop and play aggro on turn/river (let's say when he bets turn small or checks turn).

      So to add it one more time my doubts are with your 3-bet there.
    • Dracsharp
      Dracsharp
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.01.2010 Posts: 2,478
      Once we just call we he has the initiative we won't do much of making him fold later unless we reraise him he could go

      bet turn
      bet river on blanks

      bet turn
      c/c river on blanks

      He is most likely on c/f on flush completing card, which would be perfect is we aim to bluff him out but we want him in, Jx is more hidden but also less likely.

      We represent the exact hand we have, he likes going to sd wtsd 31% but also likes to be good there so i wanted to make a strong argument for a fold, this guy could also go c/c so turn check might not mean much.

      I rather expect value hands from him

      Would you reraise him on turn blank even if he use standard size ?

      I am getting slower, i need to take break :D

      My problem is the passive line here is that he is repping value and he is capable of folding most but if w take a passive line repping fd he might stay all the way AND not pay us if we hit. Just calling the flop i doubt going to be reliably fold his tp and especially his 2p, because just calling flop minraise multiway limits us to marginal hands and draws. I was repping set or combo draw or least top 2.

      I gave him credit for some sort of hand reading ability
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by Dracsharp

      My problem is the passive line here is that he is repping value and he is capable of folding most but if w take a passive line repping fd he might stay all the way AND not pay us if we hit. Just calling the flop i doubt going to be reliably fold his tp and especially his 2p, because just calling flop minraise multiway limits us to marginal hands and draws. I was repping set or combo draw or least top 2.

      I gave him credit for some sort of hand reading ability
      First, considering his higher WTSD and overall nitiness why do we expect him to fold his value range?

      Second, why are we giving him respect for hand reading ability? Playing 16/12 at 6 max doesn't make you a great player by any means so while he may have some hand reading abilities I doubt they are anywhere near decent enough.
    • Dracsharp
      Dracsharp
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.01.2010 Posts: 2,478
      What cards do you aim to make him fold ?

      (*i am gone to take that break because i came here after 3h session then we analyzed for hours and i am grateful but i am not much or any use right now :) )
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by Dracsharp
      What cards do you aim to make him fold ?

      (*i am gone to take that break because i came here after 3h session then we analyzed for hours and i am grateful but i am not much or any use right now :) )
      I personally wouldn't aim to make a nit fold anything on the flop after he raised, especially one that seems showdown happy.

      Take a break, we can continue tomorrow as I'm about to head out for some live poker as well.

      BTW, what timezone are you in?
    • Dracsharp
      Dracsharp
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.01.2010 Posts: 2,478
      Cet

      Your stand on this if i understand correctly that he could be bluffing or value raising and if he value raises we don't aim to make him fold. I rather go with the assumption that if he actually raises loose postflop then it is mostly thin value..

      Lets give him this range

      JJ-22,AQs-A6s,K9s+,QTs+,J9s+,T9s,98s,87s,76s,AQo-ATo,KQo

      After minraise i can't imagine bluffs really, and minraise in the first place doesn't make much sense

      3.98%
      TdTh, TdTs, ThTs, 8h8s, 8h8c, 8s8c, AhQh, AsQs, AcQc, AhJh, AsJs, AcJc, AhTh, AsTs, JdTd, Jd9d, Td9d, Ah8h, As8s, Ac8c, 7d6d, AhQs, AhQc, AsQh, AsQc, AcQh, AcQs, AhJd, AhJs, AhJc, AsJd, AsJh, AsJc, AcJd, AcJh, AcJs, AhTd, AhTs, AsTd, AsTh, AcTd, AcTh, AcTs

      So at this point he is either on tp,2p, cdraw , set.

      1. 2.04% is tp(1.94%) and regular draw
      2. 0.28% cdraw
      3. 1.11% is 2p
      4. 0.56% is set

      I think he folds cat 1. least to turn he and it is very likely he folds cat 2. too and there is also a chance he will fold cat 3. if he just calls but not as reliable, might let go of a8 and go with at or whatev we don't know this. He is never folding cat 4.

      By just calling he barrels cat 1. on blank except the prolly his fd, cat 2. might barrel, cat 3 & 4 will, if we hit he might go broke with draws might call one street with tp+ but probably c/f river without pairing.

      If he is c/c turn on a flush completing card and check rivers when board gets paired we obviously bet for value but would you fold when he pushes ?

      I could see us taking away his regular draw which is almost non existent, or his combo draws on the river but he might play passive lines with tp like hands to not make it a good move at all, since cdraw is still rather unlikely.

      As i see if we call our line is without improvement

      c/c turn
      c/f river

      If he bluffed king high could take it and his fd s too, bluffing cdraw is too thin

      "My" line is only marginally -ev if he never folds anything with the exception of regular draw, but if he ever does especially after he called flop than this is a phenomenal line. I would without a doubt play the passive line with regular draw, but with this i am not convinced.
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hey Drac,

      I'm about to head into the Sunday coaching so I don't have time to into detail with your answer but I'm curious why you are adding so many thin value hands in a nits ck/raise range on this flop?

      Can we realistically expect him to raise AsJs? These guys almost always simply call with those hands and play passive.

      I can see him raising AK/2p+ for value and possibly some draws.

      I think that where we disagree is the range that he folds.

      I can't see a nit with high WTSD raising a hand for value on the flop and simply folding the turn when we ship a pure blank. He folds some weaker draws that he misplayed and maybe some weaker made hands but I doubt he ever folds TP that he raised for value (and called with).