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[NL20-NL50] NL50 6max, BUvBB nutflush draw vs raise

    • Anger86
      Joined: 17.08.2008 Posts: 511
      $50.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
      UTG: $52.95 - VPIP: 21, PFR: 16, 3B: 9, AF: 3.1, Hands: 633
      MP: $50.00 - VPIP: 22, PFR: 22, 3B: 11, AF: 3.0, Hands: 64
      CO: $43.85 - VPIP: 31, PFR: 6, 3B: 0, AF: 7.0, Hands: 35
      Hero (BTN): $104.55 - VPIP: 24, PFR: 21, 3B: 11, AF: 5.0, Hands: 123101
      SB: $50.50 - VPIP: 24, PFR: 19, 3B: 14, AF: Infinity, Hands: 21
      BB: $50.00 - VPIP: 18, PFR: 14, 3B: 6, AF: 1.8, Hands: 1019

      Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BTN with A :heart: 4 :heart:
      3 folds, Hero raises to $1.25, 1 fold, BB calls $0.75

      Flop: ($2.75) 2 :diamond: Q :heart: 6 :heart: (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $2.20, BB raises to $7.50, Hero raises to $17, BB raises to $48.75, Hero calls $31.75

      Turn: ($100.25) 4 :diamond: (2 players)

      River: ($100.25) Q :diamond: (2 players)

      Villain stats, notes:

      Uploaded with

      Wanted to ask you about possible lines here.
      I feel that getting it all-in on flop against his whole range
      will be close to 50/50.

      My guess about his range:

      Board: 2:diamond: Q:heart: 6:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    63.11%  63.11%   0.00% { 66, 22, KQs, KhJh, 5h4h }
      MP3    36.89%  36.89%   0.00% { Ah4h }

      My guess was wrong about 10 %

      More AQ:

      Board: 2:diamond: Q:heart: 6:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    60.88%  60.88%   0.00% { 66, 22, AQs, KQs, KhJh, KhTh, 5h4h, AQo }
      MP3    39.12%  39.12%   0.00% { Ah4h }

      Anyway, can I play with bet/call line on the flop.
      It kind of turns my hand over, but nevertheless
      I have good enough equity most of the time against
      his whole range to make a call.

      Question is about the turn then. How should I proceed If I just call here.

      Villain doesn't seem to too aggro on the turn, so
      can float if he checks, since that IMO should be a bluff.
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      1) You have position. Why would you want to 3bet the Flop? Even with my nutted hands, I'm always flatting the raise here.

      2) 3betting just isolates you vs the stronger parts of his range. If we call, we can keep all his air hands in, and worse flush draws. Then if both of you hit, you can cooler him. When you 3bet the flop, you are forcing him to fold those hands.

      3) He is a nit. He is never check/raising AQ (which crushes your hand anyway) or KQ (which you are an underdog against). I just think his range is so weighted towards sets a lot of the time. I also don't think he checkraises any QX with the intention of folding to a 3bet - that would just be a play that doesn't make any sense. And you are not a favourite vs QX anyway,

      4) In order to justify 3betting with AXs here,
      -There should be some bluff 3bet and raising and 4bet dynamic on the Flop
      -Flop should preferably have a ton of combo draws which you can dominate. If flop is something like Q96hh, then I would like 3betting a lot more.
      -Best to do it OOP, when you have a lack of options. being IP, you can just flat and play prefectly with the information he provides after he checks the Turn or River.