[NL20-NL50] NL50 - AQ 3betpot

    • LockONNN
      LockONNN
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.05.2010 Posts: 3,437
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
      SB ($21.02)
      BB ($50)
      UTG ($80.78)
      UTG+1 ($51.78)
      CO ($71.92)
      Hero ($53.76)


      CO:
      20/15
      24% OR CO
      57% F3bet CO
      2.5% 4bet range CO
      28% call vs 3bet
      34% Fcbet flop 3betpot
      45% WWSF
      27% WTSD


      Dealt to Hero A:spade: Q:heart:

      fold, fold, CO raises to $1.50, Hero raises to $4.50, fold, fold, CO calls $3

      FLOP ($9.75) A:diamond: 3:club: T:spade:

      CO checks, Hero bets $6, CO calls $6

      TURN ($21.75) A:diamond: 3:club: T:spade: 8:diamond:

      CO checks, Hero bets $13, CO calls $13

      RIVER ($47.75) A:diamond: 3:club: T:spade: 8:diamond: 9:diamond:

      CO checks, Hero (~30$)

      My PF image was some kind of damaged. It was the third 3bet I did aggainst him in a short period of time. The first he folded, second he 4bet and I fold. Is there some value shoving this river?
  • 3 replies
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      Hey,

      What's his W$SD? His WTSD is a bit higher than average so you might have value in a shove.. It would also be very helpful if you knew whether he:
      a) defends suited aces OOP;
      b) check/call all the way with Axs 2pairs (not check/raise)

      Basically, the weaker the top of his range is, the more you can shove. He can definitely have AT, TT from preflop imo, maybe some QJdd, KQdd, KJdd that floats flop? QTdd, KTdd, JTdd make some sense as well. If he doesn't call hands like AJo OOP and call all the way with Ax I think river is just a check back without very aggro image vs him postflop. Your hand is not worse than AK btw, just so we are clear on that. I'd say even some hand like A8s is close whether to bet river or not.

      If his river range has in the "better than AQ" part all these hands:
      - ATs, A8s, A9s, T9s
      - QJd, KQd, KJd, JTd, QTd, KTd
      - TT, 33;

      you can probably just check it back. Those are 20 combos of hands that beat you in his range and you need him to call >20 that you beat to make a vbet with your hand.
    • LockONNN
      LockONNN
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.05.2010 Posts: 3,437
      49% W$SD
      I have no reads on him just hands. Without info I was expecting that he shoves turn hands like KdQd, QdJd, TT, AT, 33. So by the river he would be pretty capped towards top pair type hands.
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      It's still rather close since he doesn't lose at showdown, can be just variance when it's 49% instead of like 52% which is already quite common.

      I don't really see enough Ax that can call because it's only AJ which is not in full in his range imo (AJo OOP a bit less likely than all combos imo). Apart from that, your own value range here is quite wide... QJ, AT, AA, A8s, A9s, A3s sometimes (perceived anyway) and a bunch of flushes. You can also have T8s, 76s without a flush.. I don't know if he thinks it through as much but he will notice: board is scary, he could have completed many hands, I fold my bluffcatcher. That's his range if he check/shoves nutted hands and draws on turn: bluffcatchers. They don't call that much when the board completes your 'bluffs' from previous streets or at least they shouldn't if we think of it rationally.