3bet or call with QJs from BB against BU steal paradox

    • maheepsangari
      maheepsangari
      Gold
      Joined: 08.06.2010 Posts: 2,163
      I was discussing with a friend and wanted your advise in this.

      Question is if to 3bet or call from BB when BU opens and we have QJs.

      Case 1:

      TAG opens 70% from BU and has an overall fold to 3bet% of 67%.


      Equity Win Tie
      BU 43.80% 42.37% 1.43% { 70% }
      BB 56.20% 54.78% 1.43% { QJs }


      If we call we enter flop with .562*6.5bb= 3.65bb EV

      If we 3bet and he 4bets AA-QQ/AK and calls with rest then he defends with .33*.70=23.1% range which is a total of 310 combos. Out of which he 4bets 34 combos and calls with 276 combos which should be like


      Equity Win Tie
      BU 53.11% 50.66% 2.45% { JJ-22, AQs-A2s, K7s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, AQo-A9o, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
      BB 46.89% 44.44% 2.45% { QJs }


      So 67% of the time we win 3.5bb and 30.5% of the time we enter flop with 46.89% equity and 2.5% of the time we fold to 4bet and lose 9 bb.

      .67*3.5+.305(18.5*.4689)-9*.0256=4.76bb EV

      Case 2:

      TAG opens 70% from BU and has a fold to 3bet% of 94%.

      Lets say he 4bets AA-QQ/AK and calls JJ-TT, AQs, KQs, AQo, KQo and folds rest. So he defends 5.88% and folds 94.12%

      If we call again we have the same If we call we enter flop with .562*6.5bb= 3.65bb EV


      If we 3bet we enter flop with


             Equity     Win     Tie
      SB     66.00%  65.18%   0.81% { JJ-TT, AQs, KQs, AQo, KQo }
      BB     34.00%  33.19%   0.81% { QJs }



      0.9412*3.5+0.0332*(18.5*0.34)-9*0.0256=3.27bb EV

      Case 3:

      He even folds KQ to a preflop 3bet.

      Same equity again if we call.

      If we 3bet and get called


             Equity     Win     Tie
      BU     63.65%  63.07%   0.58% { JJ-TT, AQs, AQo }
      BB     36.35%  35.77%   0.58% { QJs }


      So overall value fo 3bet now is

      0.9532*3.5+0.0211*(18.5*0.3635)-9*0.0256=3.25bb EV

      So does it mean that the tighter the opponent is with defending 3bets, the better it is for us to call and not 3bet?

      When he was defending 33% of his 3bets it was more profitable for us to 3bet and with him defending <5% we are doing worse by 3betting than calling.

      Kind of a paradox we find ourselves in.
  • 8 replies
    • ThatGuyMatt
      ThatGuyMatt
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.12.2010 Posts: 3,758
      Hey maheepsangari,

      I'll move your thread over to our No Limit Advanced Discussions board where this seems more suited, I look forward to the discussions on this one! ?(
    • MatejM47
      MatejM47
      Black
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 1,193
      Its a call and its not even close. 70% BU range contains pretty much every Qx and most Jx hands that you fold out by 3betting while you keep in every hand that dominates you. QJs/o is just way to good to be turned into a 3bet bluff vs a 70% range.

      The only scenario where 3bet is better is vs a fish that will call 3bets with Q2o and stuff like that.
    • maheepsangari
      maheepsangari
      Gold
      Joined: 08.06.2010 Posts: 2,163
      Originally posted by MatejM47
      Its a call and its not even close. 70% BU range contains pretty much every Qx and most Jx hands that you fold out by 3betting while you keep in every hand that dominates you. QJs/o is just way to good to be turned into a 3bet bluff vs a 70% range.

      The only scenario where 3bet is better is vs a fish that will call 3bets with Q2o and stuff like that.
      True but I hear many people say 3betting is better to get instant profit as he'll play back very less especially if he has a high fold to 3bet% making 3betting more profitable in the long run but apparently the higher the fold to 3bet% the better it is to actually call and not 3bet to get instant profit.

      By similar logic do you think its better to call AK also in similar situation rather than 3bet unless the open raiser is a fish who calls worse?
    • MatejM47
      MatejM47
      Black
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 1,193
      Well by that logic you can go and 3bet 23o for and instant profit vs a high fold 2 3bet.

      If he folds then it really doesn't matter what your cards were. Yes 3betting QJ will be +EV, but the EV of flatting is way higher.

      AK is a mandatory 3bet 100% of the time. If you don't then you won't have enough hands in your range to ship over his 4bet and will be folding 80% of the time.

      You also have to consider how your hand does when you do get called. With QJ you just get to the flop vs a range that completely dominates you. If you hit a Q high flop and can't see a how your going to get 3 streets of value form anything worse. When you hit TPTK with AK you can easily barrel 3 time for value.
    • cadhucat
      cadhucat
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.07.2010 Posts: 1,263
      I dont agree. 3betting with QJs has way better EV than calling imo.

      Against a player that folds a lot to 3bets, makes sense to call with QJs and 3bet other hands you cant call profitably.
    • nefarious26
      nefarious26
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 413
      it also depends what level your opponent is thinking on
    • ilares
      ilares
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 25.10.2009 Posts: 21,946
      call>3bet

      he ll call AQ,KQ, and u ll be OMG WHAT I LL DO on Q52r
    • imfromsweden007
      imfromsweden007
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.10.2008 Posts: 726
      Originally posted by cadhucat
      I dont agree. 3betting with QJs has way better EV than calling imo.

      Against a player that folds a lot to 3bets, makes sense to call with QJs and 3bet other hands you cant call profitably.
      ¨

      I don't agree with this, I think calling calling is almost always better than 3betting QJs. Versus people with high fold to 3bets it's a waste because we can 3bet more trashy hands and call stronger hands such as QJs. It's max exploit. Versus normal tags it's bad because when we call we are not in super good shape, most will flat AQ/KQ but not neccesarely flat QT. We also have to fold to a 4bet, so every time he 4bet bluffs we waste a strong hand. The only time I really prefer 3betting it is versus people who fold seldom to 3bets, and also rarely 4bets.