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[NL20-NL50] NL50 JJ 3bet pot oop

    • double2
      Joined: 04.11.2008 Posts: 14,642
      Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BB: $173.64 (347.3 bb)
      UTG: $50 (100 bb)
      Hero (MP): $55.27 (110.5 bb)
      CO: $54.11 (108.2 bb)
      BTN: $50 (100 bb)
      SB: $50 (100 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is MP with J J
      UTG folds, Hero raises to $1.50, CO folds, BTN raises to $4.50, 2 folds, Hero calls $3

      Flop: ($9.75) 6 7 Q (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN bets $4.50, Hero calls $4.50

      Turn: ($18.75) T (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN checks

      River: ($18.75) K (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN bets $11

      Villain 2.1k hands
      3bet BU 11.6%
      3bet vs open MP 6.5% (10.8% IP)
      cbet flop/turn in 3bet pot 86/43
      Agg freq 39/27/25
      WTSD 25%
      WWSF 45%

      We didn't have any dynamics so my game plan against this guy is 4bet bluff a lot in these spots, I feel I will get a lot of respect. And for that reason I didn't feel comfortable 4bet/shipping JJ with no history.

      Post flop, I think flop and turn are stdd. Dunno about river, although he is kinda nitty post flop I think I have to call.
  • 1 reply
    • EmanuelC16
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,909

      I would usually fold preflop with JJ since I use overall fold 3bet vs MP stat so vs 6.5% I can't do much... I don't like calling very capped and defined like JJ, TT, KQs, AQ only, that's for sure. It's probably not a mistake to call vs someone wide but you have to expect to just lose less than 3bb you opened for pre, I don't think you can turn profit by raise/calling JJ OOP against that range, you just limit your losses.

      Given his 3bet to be around 10.5% like you said here, he folds around 80% to the 4bet or he gets it with less than premium so JJ is quite solid when getting the money in the middle in that case.

      This means that 80% of the time you win 13.5bb so 10.8bb.

      20% of the time you get it in with 36% equity meaning you lose 27.5bb each time, probbaly like 29bb including rake. This happens only 20% of the time though so you only lose 5.8bb when you get it in so getting it in is +5bb combined with the time he folds. Please double check the maths and logic here, I am a bit tired so might have missed something.

      My final thought is that including JJ in your stacking off range here with QQ+ and AK while reducing your bluff 4bets by 6 combos is also very profitable. You increase your 4bet frequency but fold less often to a shove. It also creates a dynamic and it depends how often you open in MP. You might have to stack off JJ to 'protect' your opens, otherwise you open pre and fold to 3bet too much.