"All in EV" for FL?

    • JLeitmotiv
      JLeitmotiv
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2009 Posts: 756
      Relax, I am not going to defend actual All-in EV for FL (or should I... ).

      I will try to explain again what I had once said in the Spanish forums (and they all told me it was a hideous idea, but I didn't understand why actually :f_confused: ). Please keep in mind this idea is pretty rusty and probably completely worthless, but maybe worth taking a look. I'll translate and quote exactly what I said then:

      original de JLeitmotiv

      OK, today I was playing and all of a sudden this hand came along:


      Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.20 Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      Preflop: Hero is BTN with Q Q
      MP folds, CO raises, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, CO calls

      Flop: (7.5 SB) 5 7 7 (2 players)
      CO checks, Hero bets, CO calls

      Turn: (4.7 BB) 8 (2 players)
      CO checks, Hero bets, CO calls

      River: (6.7 BB) K (2 players)
      CO bets, Hero calls

      Results:8.7 BB pot (0.4 BB rake)
      Final Board: 5 7 7 8 K
      CO showed K 4 and won 8.4 BB (4.3 BB net)
      Hero mucked Q Q and lost (-4 BB net)


      Of course my first reaction was to insult from the roof tops as soon as he donked me on the river and freaking fish praying for the river call flop with backdoor gutshot and one overcard please I cannot believe it and that donk for heaven's sake, how come he didn't even try to x/r me so at least i could feel guilty somehow raising preflop only because you saw a brodway and the other card with the same color (Translator's Note: For heaven's sake I was such a nit) i can't believe this and so on...

      Afterwards, I remembered that NL players at least can take a look at their all-in EV and get an idea of how much is Fortuna hammering upon him. And then I began thinking about how do they calculate all-in EV in NL.

      My equity against CO is, per street

      PF: 68.6%
      F: 83.9%
      T: 84.1%


      Therefore, I thought that we could do this analysis to check our SD winnings. For instance, for this case,

      Preflop I have 68.6% equity, so I have, from the pot

      $0.75*0.686 = $0.5145


      Flop I have 83.9% equity, so I have, from the pot

      $0.95*0.839 = $0.7971

      Turn I have 84.1% equity:

      $1.35*0.841 = $1.1354

      and I rivered 0% equity:

      $1.75*0= $0 :(

      My questions would be, with this calculations, can anyone think of what can we do that resembles All-in EV from NL? What I had thought about was an "All-in EV" per street calculation


      PF: there are $0.75 in the pot, where $0.3 are mine; my equity is 68.6%, therefore

      PF: $0.75*0.686 - $0.3 = +$0.2145

      F: $0.2 added to the pot, my equity is 83.9%, therefore

      F: $0.2*0.839 - $0.1 = +$0.0678

      T: $0.4 added to the pot, my equity is 84.1%, therefore

      T: $0.4*0.841 - $0.2 = +$0.1364

      R: $0.4 added to the pot, my equity is 0%, therefore

      R: $0.4*0 - $0.2 = -$0.2


      all in all, i would get something like:

      PF+F+T+R=+$0.2187

      Obviously, this is assuming that we have complete knowledge (pretty much like All-in EV calculations though), but I think this could be a nice tool to analyze certain situations and scenarios and it can give us a closer value to our true winrate, with less variance. What do you think about that?
      It was not until recently that I stumbled upon this paper that I thought again about this.

      DISCLAIMER: I know that this is flawed in many different things, like not considering Fold Equity and such. Obviously my point isn't to completely strip variance out of poker, simply trying to reduce it a bit without adding any bias to the mean value of the distribution.

      tl;dr: Do you think All-in EV per street in LHE can be helpful reducing the variance of our expected SD winnings?
  • 5 replies
    • madorjan
      madorjan
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.11.2009 Posts: 5,561
      Short answer: no, it's biased.

      There's a great topic on 2p2 on this subject (cannot link, cause I got banned...), search for street-by-street EV, and you'll find that, it's a lengthy one, and the arguments in it are good.
    • JLeitmotiv
      JLeitmotiv
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2009 Posts: 756
      Originally posted by madorjan
      Short answer: no, it's biased.

      There's a great topic on 2p2 on this subject (cannot link, cause I got banned...), search for street-by-street EV, and you'll find that, it's a lengthy one, and the arguments in it are good.
      yeah, just a quick google and this came up

      Originally posted by someoneatdeucescracked

      For example if someone three barrels TPTK vs a flushdraw; if he gets called on the river he's always going to be behind so it will look like he's running bad (if the missed flush folds the river there is no showdown). And since all players have different ranges and different playing styles the number of hands that get to showdown and the kind of hands that get to showdown differ, making it impossible to reach any meaning full conclusion about if someone is running bad or not.
    • Avataren
      Avataren
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.04.2010 Posts: 1,621
      Originally posted by madorjan
      Short answer: no, it's biased.

      There's a great topic on 2p2 on this subject (cannot link, cause I got banned...), search for street-by-street EV, and you'll find that, it's a lengthy one, and the arguments in it are good.
      highlighted is the best thing in this thread :D
    • madorjan
      madorjan
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.11.2009 Posts: 5,561
      Someone tried to phish my acc details, but for some reason they're hesitant to give my access back...
    • Avataren
      Avataren
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.04.2010 Posts: 1,621
      lol