[NL2-NL10] AQs flushdraw

    • sketchzr
      sketchzr
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.08.2009 Posts: 222
      frustrating how I always flop monsters vs. short stacks, is there any reason for just calling such a weak bet on the flop? I'd usually raise/wouldn't mind getting it in on the flop. I also think the raise on the turn was too telling that I had a flush.

      Poker Stars $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      BB: $18.04 - VPIP: 24, PFR: 16, 3B: 4, AF: 2.3, Hands: 124
      UTG: $10.45 - VPIP: 17, PFR: 17, 3B: 8, AF: 0.0, Hands: 36
      MP: $5.41 - VPIP: 37, PFR: 11, 3B: 0, AF: 2.3, Hands: 27
      CO: $7.99 - VPIP: 23, PFR: 15, 3B: 12, AF: 2.0, Hands: 40
      Hero (BTN): $10.00
      SB: $6.78 - VPIP: 18, PFR: 14, 3B: 7, AF: 3.2, Hands: 132

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BTN with A:diamond: Q:diamond:
      1 fold, MP raises to $0.40, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.40, SB calls $0.35, 1 fold

      Flop: ($1.30) 8:heart: 8:diamond: 7:diamond: (3 players)
      SB checks, MP bets $0.50, Hero calls $0.50, SB folds

      Turn: ($2.30) T:diamond: (2 players)
      MP bets $1.00, Hero raises to $2.10, MP raises to $4.51, Hero calls $2.41

      River: ($11.32) K:diamond: (2 players)

      Final Pot: $11.32
      MP shows Q:heart: Q:club:
      Hero shows A:diamond: Q:diamond:
      Hero wins $10.81
      (Rake: $0.51)
  • 3 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi.

      I think raising the Flop is actually a decent option for you. You are up against a short stack, and your hand is probably doing fairly well vs most of his stack off range. if he shoves a lower flush draw on the Flop, that's great cos we are crushing him.

      I also expect him to have some random overcards type of hand which will fold to a raise. Especially when he bets so small on the Flop, I think he is likelier to have air.

      As played, I think you should call the Turn again. Our hand is not afraid of too many rivers besides the 8. He is also short, so there is no rush to build the pot right away on the Turn, and the action killing diamond only comes on ~16% of Rivers so that isn't going to happen too often.

      Raising only makes sense if we think he has something that he's never folding but we wouldn't know for sure.

      Thanks.
    • sketchzr
      sketchzr
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.08.2009 Posts: 222
      Originally posted by mbml
      Hi.

      I think raising the Flop is actually a decent option for you. You are up against a short stack, and your hand is probably doing fairly well vs most of his stack off range. if he shoves a lower flush draw on the Flop, that's great cos we are crushing him.

      I also expect him to have some random overcards type of hand which will fold to a raise. Especially when he bets so small on the Flop, I think he is likelier to have air.

      As played, I think you should call the Turn again. Our hand is not afraid of too many rivers besides the 8. He is also short, so there is no rush to build the pot right away on the Turn, and the action killing diamond only comes on ~16% of Rivers so that isn't going to happen too often.

      Raising only makes sense if we think he has something that he's never folding but we wouldn't know for sure.

      Thanks.
      I agree, his VPIP to PFR ratio is pretty off aswell so he's only raising premium hands while calling with a really wide range so he will (somewhat) often have an overpair in this situation, and yeah raising the flop would have definitely been a better move considering it's also more likely to look like a bluff on this board.

      Interesting how infrequently the 4th diamond will land, I'm always kind of expecting it to happen.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Well, on the Turn, 4 community cards are out, and you can see your own 2 hole cards, so there are 52-6=46 cards left in the deck. You already have a flush so that's 5 diamonds out, and there are 13-5=8 diamonds left in the deck. So it's 8/46 = ~18% I think.