[NL20-NL50] NL25-SH-fast 99 (SET vs turn donk shove)

    • ferdy81
      ferdy81
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.08.2011 Posts: 150
      Party, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players

      SB: $26.51 (106 bb)
      BB: $72.54 (290.2 bb)
      UTG: $32.62 (130.5 bb)
      BTN: $25 (100 bb)
      MP: $39.23 (156.9 bb)
      Hero (CO): $38.93 (155.7 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is CO with 9:heart: 9:spade:
      UTG raises to $0.60, MP folds, Hero raises to $2, 3 folds, UTG calls $1.40

      Flop: ($4.35) 5:spade: 9:diamond: Q:club: (2 players)
      UTG checks, Hero bets $2.25, UTG calls $2.25

      Turn: ($8.85) 6:diamond: (2 players)
      UTG checks, Hero bets $5.25, UTG raises to $28.37, Hero ?

      Villain is playing 31/27/0,4/5,4/116 [vpip/pfr/agg/3bet/hands]. I have 3rd nuts on the turn. Any suggestion on a huge overbet? I put him on a this range:


      Board: 5:spade: 9:diamond: Q:club:  6:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP3    60.14%  60.14%   0.00% { QQ, 66-55, 87s, AdQd, 87o }
      CO     39.86%  39.86%   0.00% { 99 }


      If I add KK and AA I'm actually ahead:

      Board: 5:spade: 9:diamond: Q:club:  6:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP3    42.58%  42.58%   0.00% { QQ+, 66-55, 87s, AdQd, 87o }
      CO     57.42%  57.42%   0.00% { 99 }
  • 3 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi.

      Is the guy a fish? If he isn't, I am not too sure how much I like the 3bet preflop. But assuming he is not a very good player, I wouldn't mind 3betting to isolate him from the other players.

      I don't see how you are even considering a fold. Even based on the conservative estimate you are giving him (all combos of 87), you still have 40% equity. Remember when you are the caller, you don't need more than 50%. Probably somewhere between 30-40% equity is more than enough to call this off.

      And I think you might have given him too many combos of 87o (depends on how fishy he is). You also forgot to add some twopairs like 56s and maybe some combo draws like JdTd (ok maybe he is passive and may not play combodraws like that).

      I would certainly consider folding AA and KK but not any set

      Thanks
    • ferdy81
      ferdy81
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.08.2011 Posts: 150
      I doubt he is that fishy. This would be snap-call vs some aggressive player.

      I never saw him with any aggression yet. I checked few hands on him and even with 2nd nuts he just ck/calls river OOP. Or another example - he plays TP/TK (AK hand on a 38K board) with ck/call line only to the river. So this gave me thoughts what did he wake up with here :P

      I just remembered the line, when a passive player "wakes up", pay attention!

      And yes, thanks for info on a calling equity, seems logic.

      BR
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Yeah your pot odds are like 23/65 = 35.3%

      You are definitely committed here with 40% equity.