[NL20-NL50] 50fr KQs CO

    • AtrociousNightmare
      AtrociousNightmare
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.04.2010 Posts: 1,185
      Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 7 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BTN: $49.25 (98.5 bb)
      SB: $41.25 (82.5 bb)
      BB: $21.68 (43.4 bb)
      MP1: $50.36 (100.7 bb)
      MP2: $20.72 (41.4 bb)
      MP3: $24.75 (49.5 bb)
      Hero (CO): $57.25 (114.5 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is CO with Q K
      MP1 raises to $1.50, MP2 folds, MP3 calls $1.50, Hero raises to $6, 3 folds, MP1 calls $4.50, MP3 folds

      Flop: ($14.25) 4 J K (2 players)
      MP1 checks, Hero bets $8.08, MP1 raises to $21.50, Hero folds

      Results:
      $30.41 pot ($1.67 rake)
      Final Board: 4 J K
      MP1 mucked and won $28.74 ($14.66 net)
      Hero mucked Q K and lost (-$14.08 net)

      VPIP: 44, PFR: 28, 3B: 11, AF: 9,0, Hands: 25
      He had 67 as EP PFR
      50% fold to 3Bet
      27 WTSD

      Here i was trying to exploit his looseness, but didn't work and I didn't feel like going all-in here, without even a plan B.
  • 8 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi.

      I probably just call along with KQs vs regs but squeezing is definitely good here - We have a lot of value.

      Flop is easy stack off. There are so many flush and straight draws, and I wouldn't be surprised to see AJ or KT some of the time. I think we have at least 40% equity vs his stack off range and we are committed after putting in 20+BB

      Thanks.
    • AtrociousNightmare
      AtrociousNightmare
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.04.2010 Posts: 1,185
      Originally posted by mbml
      Hi.

      I probably just call along with KQs vs regs but squeezing is definitely good here - We have a lot of value.

      Flop is easy stack off. There are so many flush and straight draws, and I wouldn't be surprised to see AJ or KT some of the time. I think we have at least 40% equity vs his stack off range and we are committed after putting in 20+BB

      Thanks.
      Holy cow this will help me get my value.
      I think I fold every time here.
      Thx!

      Btw I love your play style, I really hope to become like you in the future!
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Thanks.

      Why don't you try equilating a reasonable check/raising range from villain to see how well you are doing against his range? Then compare it with your pot odds and you can see whether you should shove or fold.

      Note that you are also assuming he is never bluffing. I agree it isn't going to happen too often, but in most spots you should assign at least 10% of bluffs unless the guy is ultra passive.
    • AtrociousNightmare
      AtrociousNightmare
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.04.2010 Posts: 1,185
      Originally posted by mbml
      Thanks.

      Why don't you try equilating a reasonable check/raising range from villain to see how well you are doing against his range? Then compare it with your pot odds and you can see whether you should shove or fold.

      Note that you are also assuming he is never bluffing. I agree it isn't going to happen too often, but in most spots you should assign at least 10% of bluffs unless the guy is ultra passive.
      The problem is that I have no idea of a XR range of him.
      It never happens to have a super aggressive guy like this one at the tables, and I have no clue what he does, as my sample is also super tiny.

      For as far as I know, he could be doing that with ANYTHING.
      Starting from a bluff ending to monsters, with everything in between.
      How can I know?
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Ok I'll make the blank assumption that this guy folds 10% of the time as he has a bluff CRing range here.

      10% of the time, we win 43.83
      90% of the time, he stacks off with us.

      I think he 4bets AK pre given his aggression. Not sure if he 4bets JJ. I will discount 44 and JJ by half. I assumed he always c/r KQ, and he always c/r KTs when he has it.

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 39.65% 27.17% 12.49% KcQc
      MP3 60.35% 47.86% 12.49% JsJc, 4d4s, 4s4c, KTs+, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh, QhTh, JcTc, Jh9h, Th9h, KJo+

      We put in 35$ more when we shove, and we get back 0.3965 X 102.25 = 40.54

      I don't even need to complete this calculation, since with 40% equity, we are already profiting when we stack off here. Not even needing to take into account the 43.83$ we win when he bluffs.

      If we decrease our equity to 35%, then it's a lot closer.
    • AtrociousNightmare
      AtrociousNightmare
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.04.2010 Posts: 1,185
      Originally posted by mbml
      Ok I'll make the blank assumption that this guy folds 10% of the time as he has a bluff CRing range here.

      10% of the time, we win 43.83
      90% of the time, he stacks off with us.

      I think he 4bets AK pre given his aggression. Not sure if he 4bets JJ. I will discount 44 and JJ by half. I assumed he always c/r KQ, and he always c/r KTs when he has it.

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 39.65% 27.17% 12.49% KcQc
      MP3 60.35% 47.86% 12.49% JsJc, 4d4s, 4s4c, KTs+, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh, QhTh, JcTc, Jh9h, Th9h, KJo+

      We put in 35$ more when we shove, and we get back 0.3965 X 102.25 = 40.54

      I don't even need to complete this calculation, since with 40% equity, we are already profiting when we stack off here. Not even needing to take into account the 43.83$ we win when he bluffs.

      If we decrease our equity to 35%, then it's a lot closer.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      you need to know some of this basic math if you want to move up to NL100/200. anything you don't understand here? It's mostly highschool algebra here.

      Total EV = Probability (Fold) * EV (When villain folds) + Probability (Call) * EV (When villain calls)
    • AtrociousNightmare
      AtrociousNightmare
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.04.2010 Posts: 1,185
      Originally posted by mbml
      you need to know some of this basic math if you want to move up to NL100/200. anything you don't understand here? It's mostly highschool algebra here.

      Total EV = Probability (Fold) * EV (When villain folds) + Probability (Call) * EV (When villain calls)
      Oh no it's all cool.
      Math is not what I'm missing.
      I mean yes I do suck at it but I'm working on that too.
      But not for these things.
      I did train on some quizzes here and there on ps.com