[NL20-NL50] 50fr JJ MP3

    • AtrociousNightmare
      AtrociousNightmare
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.04.2010 Posts: 1,185
      Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      MP2: $50 (100 bb)
      Hero (MP3): $73.70 (147.4 bb)
      CO: $52.44 (104.9 bb)
      BTN: $54.46 (108.9 bb)
      SB: $44 (88 bb)
      BB: $71.02 (142 bb)
      UTG+2: $51.63 (103.3 bb)
      MP1: $46.25 (92.5 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is MP3 with J J
      UTG+2 folds, MP1 raises to $1.50, MP2 folds, Hero calls $1.50, 2 folds, SB calls $1.25, BB folds

      Flop: ($5) 2 J 3 (3 players)
      SB checks, MP1 bets $2.75, Hero calls $2.75, SB folds

      Turn: ($10.50) A (2 players)
      MP1 bets $5.75, Hero calls $5.75

      River: ($22) Q (2 players)
      MP1 bets $12.75, Hero raises to $38, MP1 calls $23.50 and is all-in

      Results:
      $94.50 pot ($3 rake)
      Final Board: 2 J 3 A Q
      Hero showed J J and lost (-$46.25 net)
      MP1 showed A A and won $91.50 ($45.25 net)

      VPIP: 19, PFR: 11, 3B: 4, AF: 2,2, Hands: 1482

      I call flop because of dry board and SB value chance.
      I proceed with my slowplay as I'm basically not afraid of anything, except for the very rare AA or FD.

      Guess what he had.
  • 5 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      Hi.

      I would raise the Turn, unless you thought that this guy always follows through on the River. Given that he only has 92.5bb, it's better just to raise for value immediately. I think he is much more likely to be a fish and we can be pretty certain that fish are not too fond of bet/folding.

      River is an ugly card, straights and flushes all get there. However, I still think we have value in a shove and we should just shove anyway.

      Try equilating your JJ vs his calling range of 2pairs, maybe AK, flushes and straights and sets (u beat 2 sets and lose to 2 sets).

      Thanks.
    • AtrociousNightmare
      AtrociousNightmare
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.04.2010 Posts: 1,185
      • 21.01.2013, 12:04
      • This post has been edited 3 time(s), it was last edited by AtrociousNightmare: 21.01.2013 12:07.
      Originally posted by mbml
      Hi.

      I would raise the Turn, unless you thought that this guy always follows through on the River. Given that he only has 92.5bb, it's better just to raise for value immediately. I think he is much more likely to be a fish and we can be pretty certain that fish are not too fond of bet/folding.

      River is an ugly card, straights and flushes all get there. However, I still think we have value in a shove and we should just shove anyway.

      Try equilating your JJ vs his calling range of 2pairs, maybe AK, flushes and straights and sets (u beat 2 sets and lose to 2 sets).

      Thanks.
      45% without AK.
      58% with it.
      Without KT I'm on 75+, and I'm pretty sure he's never on a KT here.

      I didn't raise turn because I thought he folds every time if he doesn't have an A and also many Aces actually.
      He's not that MUCH of a fish and he does fold a lot.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      He does seem like a weak fish, but still I don't think they fold AX on the Turn too often so I still prefer raising the Turn.

      not sure how you calculated your ranges here. I gave him AJ and AQ, as well as 5 flush combos (I don't think he plays 45s or the smaller suited connectors), and all combos of KTs to be safe. It's safe to assume he doesn't have KTo IMO.

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 54.55% 54.55% 0.00% JdJs
      MP3 45.45% 45.45% 0.00% AA, QQ, 33-22, AQs-AJs, KTs, Td9d, Td8d, 9d8d, 9d7d, 8d7d, AQo-AJo

      So we definitely have value in a raise here still. Maybe even QJs will call a raise.
    • AtrociousNightmare
      AtrociousNightmare
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.04.2010 Posts: 1,185
      • 21.01.2013, 13:19
      • This post has been edited 1 time(s), it was last edited by AtrociousNightmare: 21.01.2013 13:19.
      Originally posted by mbml
      He does seem like a weak fish, but still I don't think they fold AX on the Turn too often so I still prefer raising the Turn.

      not sure how you calculated your ranges here. I gave him AJ and AQ, as well as 5 flush combos (I don't think he plays 45s or the smaller suited connectors), and all combos of KTs to be safe. It's safe to assume he doesn't have KTo IMO.

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 54.55% 54.55% 0.00% JdJs
      MP3 45.45% 45.45% 0.00% AA, QQ, 33-22, AQs-AJs, KTs, Td9d, Td8d, 9d8d, 9d7d, 8d7d, AQo-AJo

      So we definitely have value in a raise here still. Maybe even QJs will call a raise.
      Completely forgot about flushes that's why lol
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      Yeah it's close, I think he doesn't have too many flush combos though.