[NL20-NL50] [SH] NL50 QQ river

    • duder1n0
      duder1n0
      Gold
      Joined: 07.07.2009 Posts: 5,317
      Prima, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players

      Hero (UTG): $50 (100 bb)
      MP: $52.57 (105.1 bb)
      CO: $95.13 (190.3 bb)
      BTN: $32.78 (65.6 bb)
      SB: $68.32 (136.6 bb)
      BB: $55.25 (110.5 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q Q
      Hero raises to $1.50, MP folds, CO calls $1.50, 3 folds

      Flop: ($3.75) 3 9 T (2 players)
      Hero bets $2.50, CO calls $2.50

      Turn: ($8.75) 4 (2 players)
      Hero bets $5.50, CO calls $5.50

      River: ($19.75) 2 (2 players)
      Hero bets $9.50, CO raises to $26, Hero folds


      Anon table.

      CO played 22/12 after 40 hands, AFq 41, wtsd 25 so far.

      As flush completes on the river, I chose to valuebet/fold.
  • 3 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi.

      I think you should bet significantly larger on the Turn, with both your draws and made hands. I would bet like 6.50-7 here.

      On the River, I think in order to value bet here, you need him to be
      1) Never bluff raising your half pot bet which could be perceived to be weak
      2) Call with TX a good amount of the time.

      I'm not too sure how many TX hands he is going to have vs your UTG open, maybe he has a wide preflop range since he's 22/12 (huge disparity between PFR and VPIP).

      It's kind of close, maybe he could potentially call again with AT and KT. We having 2 Qs block off a lot of straight draws in his range (but straight draws probably fold to a river bet anyway).

      Leaning towards a check/fold given starting positions. If we were in late position I may consider betting.

      Thanks.
    • duder1n0
      duder1n0
      Gold
      Joined: 07.07.2009 Posts: 5,317
      Originally posted by mbml
      Leaning towards a check/fold given starting positions. If we were in late position I may consider betting.
      If river were a blank like 3, it would be a clear ch/call, right?
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      I think this T9Xs board is close. In majority of situations, if his range is wide enough to have a ton of busted draws, his range is also going to have enough top pairs which can hero call. I think the exceptions are boards like JTXX double suited and T9XX double suited where the EV of c/c may be higher than the EV of betting.

      I think you should bet though, you have 2 Qs and one spade blocker, so you remove a lot of possible draw combos which he could have. With a hand like KhKc, perhaps it may be better to c/c.