[NL2-NL10] AKs this time

    • straywolf
      straywolf
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.12.2009 Posts: 203
      Full Tilt Poker $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2072879
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      CO: $12.30 - VPIP: 18, PFR: 15, 3B: 10, AF: 2.0, Hands: 39
      BTN: $11.03 - VPIP: 20, PFR: 14, 3B: 4, AF: 1.5, Hands: 51
      SB: $10.81 - VPIP: 30, PFR: 22, 3B: 8, AF: 3.0, Hands: 27
      Hero (BB): $10.89 - VPIP: 23, PFR: 19, 3B: 7, AF: 3.4, Hands: 81019
      UTG: $9.06 - VPIP: 43, PFR: 43, 3B: 33, AF: 0.0, Hands: 7
      MP: $11.25 - VPIP: 16, PFR: 13, 3B: 0, AF: 1.0, Hands: 80

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BB with K :heart: A :heart:
      UTG raises to $0.30, 3 folds, SB calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.20, UTG calls $0.90, SB calls $0.90

      Flop: ($3.60) 2 :club: J :club: 4 :diamond: (3 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $1.80, UTG folds, SB folds

      i think here, i'd fold everything thats not a J or QQ+ or 44 or 22.
      but what do you think about betting into TWO person in a 3BETPOT OOP.
      probably a bad idea, but i decided that i can win good amount of times.

      correct my thinking or show me some mathematical calculations to prove if im right or show me how im wrong!

      thanks

      mine :
      Hands that go to flop: 12.52%
      22+, A9s+, KQs, QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, AQo+, T9o, 98o

      Hands that fold : 10.11%
      TT-22, A9s+, KQs, T9s, 98s, AQo+, T9o, 98o

      Hands that can call : 2.41% out of 12.52% = 19.24% of the handrange on the flop
      Basically folding like 81% of the time?
  • 1 reply
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi straywolf

      Why are we assigning T9o in their range and not KJ/QJ type hands?

      Your bluff has to work 33% of the time.

      For example if each fold 50% you will get them both folding 25% of the time.

      So if they don't fold their second pair then we are in trouble.