[NL2-NL10] J5s - Steal from CO versus 2 Loose Opp.

    • Raknyo
      Raknyo
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.12.2011 Posts: 422
      Preflop reads: BU is TAG, SB is (VP40, V15, 3B1.3), BB (VP40, PFR35, 3B20.3)


      *** HOLE CARDS ***
      Dealt to Lethrox [J :diamond: 5 :diamond:]
      oksoimafish: folds
      Poker_haoyun: folds
      Lethrox: raises $0.07 to $0.12
      djalexlee: folds
      draqshor87: calls $0.10
      User !D0: folds
      *** FLOP *** [4 :spade: A :diamond: 6 :diamond:]
      draqshor87: checks
      Lethrox: bets $0.20
      draqshor87: calls $0.20
      *** TURN *** [4 :spade: A :diamond: 6 :diamond:] [T :diamond:]
      draqshor87: checks
      Lethrox: bets $0.45
      draqshor87: calls $0.45
      *** RIVER *** [4 :spade: A :diamond: 6 :diamond:] [T :diamond:] [2 :heart:]
      draqshor87: checks
      Lethrox: bets $1
      draqshor87: raises $0.95 to $1.95 and is all-in
      Lethrox: calls $0.95
      *** SHOW DOWN ***

      PF: Not sure if this open is EV.


             Equity     Win     Tie
      CO     38.42%  37.65%   0.77% { Jd5d }
      SB     61.58%  60.81%   0.77% { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 65s, 54s, 43s, 32s, A2o+, K5o+, QTo+, JTo }


      F:
      Board: 4:spade: A:diamond: 6:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      CO     47.07%  46.63%   0.44% { Jd5d }
      SB     52.93%  52.49%   0.44% { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 65s, 54s, 43s, 32s, A2o+, K5o+, QTo+, JTo }


      Coin flip so I attempt to semi-bluff because I can pick up fold equity. I can think I can rep the Ace well and even if I get called I'm in good shape.

      Also, SB calls with roughly 40% of hands, 522/1326 total hand combos.

      We assuming he’ll only call flop with { TT+, 66, A2s+, AQo-A2o } so he he will call with a total of 216/1326 hands so will fold 306/552 hands or 55% of the time.

      Vs Calling Range:


      Board: 4:spade: A:diamond: 6:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      CO     37.83%  37.75%   0.08% { Jd5d }
      SB     62.17%  62.09%   0.08% { TT+, 66, A2s+, AQo-A2o }



      R + T: Go for maximum value.

      Please comment on ranges, I'm trying to practice hand-reading.
  • 1 reply
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Raknyo,

      As a side note, could you use the converter posted here: How to post a hand for discussion . It makes it easier to read/follow the hands (for example seeing pot size/stack size would help a LOT).

      With two loose guys in the blinds our open is a bit light especially since one of them 3-bets a fair amount (btw, the sample size is important).

      SInce the fishy guy called you his range can be really wide. Axx flops usually hit these fish decently because they play all Ax hands so he will not fold a lot however we do have hand equity with our FD.

      AS played, on the river I think his range is almost always a flush, so it's a matter of how many flushes we beat given the pot odds.

      So first off the pot is:

      0.29+0.20+0.20+0.45+0.45+1+1.95 = 4.54 and we have to call 0.95 thus our odds are roughly 17% (before rake).

      So if he raises a worse hand in 6 then we have the right odds to call.

      Since we can assume he can raise most flushes like this I can count enough worse flushes for us to be marginally profitable with a call even if we add all Kx and Qx flushes. Now, if we expect him to raise most non nut flushes on the turn it gets trickier but without info I would not expect that.

      From the range you assigned villain for the flop: TT+, 66, A2s+, AQo-A2o

      We can also remove some sets like 66 and some 2p because some of them raise them.

      I would also add hands like 77+, 65, 67, etc because we can't expect villain to fold 2nd pair to a cbet. Sometimes he may even call hands like 45+ so you need to readjust the ranges.

      As an exercise please re-adjust his flop calling range based on the above :)