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[NL2-NL10] QTo - Range Reading

    • Raknyo
      Joined: 15.12.2011 Posts: 422
      Poker Stars $5.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2072958
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      BB: $5.51 - VPIP: 69, PFR: 21, 3B: 6, AF: 2.2, Hands: 29
      UTG: $5.87 - VPIP: 14, PFR: 11, 3B: 0, AF: 1.7, Hands: 83
      Hero (MP): $7.66 - VPIP: 36, PFR: 31, 3B: 12, AF: 5.1, Hands: 511
      CO: $14.25 - VPIP: 20, PFR: 17, 3B: 7, AF: 0.8, Hands: 54
      BTN: $12.48 - VPIP: 42, PFR: 34, 3B: 6, AF: 3.0, Hands: 38
      SB: $6.11 - VPIP: 40, PFR: 35, 3B: 20, AF: 2.5, Hands: 161

      Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is MP with Q :club: T :spade:
      1 fold, Hero raises to $0.15, 2 folds, SB calls $0.13, 1 fold

      Against his possible calling range:

             Equity     Win     Tie
      CO     39.76%  38.02%   1.74% { QcTs }
      SB     60.24%  58.50%   1.74% { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, QTs+, JTs, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

      Flop: ($0.35) 9 :diamond: J :club: 2 :club: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $0.25, SB calls $0.25

      Board: 9:diamond: J:club: 2:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      CO     45.00%  43.54%   1.46% { QcTs }
      SB     55.00%  53.53%   1.46% { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, QTs+, JTs, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

      Even against this pessimistic range (assuming they slow play aces) I've got a decent hand if I expect SB to call with 398/1326 hands then I expect them to fold a lot of missed hands.

      He can only call with 172/1326 hands, so will fold 226/1326 hands or 56% of the time.

      Turn: ($0.85) 8 :spade: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $0.60, SB calls $0.60

      I hit and go for maximum value.

      River: ($2.05) A :heart: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $6.66, SB calls $5.11 all in

      I shove hoping to get paid off a strong hand TPGK+.

      Let me know about range reading please, I'm trying to improve it. :)
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      You have a draw on the Flop, so bet it. I don't think his flop calling equity is too relevant. We are going to multi-barrel regardless of whether we hit or not, and there's no way he can show down his 33 here most of the time.

      I think what's more important is if you are the caller, and villain bets. Measure your Flop equity and then decide on whether to call or fold.

      As played, not liking the river play. Majority of his range is going to fold, and only hands I expect to see on the River which could potentially herocall are AcXc and AJ. You lose so much more value when his other JX hands fold (I think he can have so many combos of KJ QJ JT which could call one more bet). In fact he should even just be folding AcXc right away when you show so much strength.