[NL20-NL50] 50fr KJs MP2

    • AtrociousNightmare
      AtrociousNightmare
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.04.2010 Posts: 1,185
      Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      Hero (MP2): $50 (100 bb)
      MP3: $33.91 (67.8 bb)
      CO: $60.82 (121.6 bb)
      BTN: $43.01 (86 bb)
      SB: $55.90 (111.8 bb)
      BB: $62.48 (125 bb)
      UTG+2: $58.97 (117.9 bb)
      MP1: $31.20 (62.4 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K J
      2 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, MP3 folds, CO calls $1.50, BTN calls $1.50, 2 folds

      Flop: ($5.25) 5 4 Q (3 players)
      Hero bets $3.32, CO folds, BTN calls $3.32

      Turn: ($11.89) K (2 players)
      Hero bets $7.75, BTN calls $7.75

      River: ($27.39) 7 (2 players)
      Hero bets $18.12, BTN calls $18.12

      Results:
      $63.63 pot ($3.00 rake)
      Final Board: 5 4 Q K 7
      Hero showed K J and won $60.63 ($29.94 net)
      BTN mucked 6 7 and lost (-$30.69 net)

      VPIP: 43, PFR: 29, 3B: 33, AF: 0,3, Hands: 7

      Anything to say?
  • 3 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi.

      When the flop has a Q, and the Turn has a K, what worse hearts do you really think are in his range?

      I think the majority of his range comprises Ah in it. I'd expect him to fold a hand like 99 with the 9h a lot of the time on the Turn. Don't forget you block K and J of hearts, so that leaves him with stuff like K9 KT Q9 QT with the 9 or T of hearts. I think he could potentially have more combos of AhX so river is a bit dicey.

      So I think it's not very certain whether we can bet for value on the River (I still think we have the best hand enough of the time, but if you bet too large you may iso vs stronger). And if we want him to call much lighter,I think your bet size is too big. We could probably bet 33-40% of the pot and fold to a raise (cos he is just so passive).

      Thanks.
    • AtrociousNightmare
      AtrociousNightmare
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.04.2010 Posts: 1,185
      Originally posted by mbml
      Hi.

      When the flop has a Q, and the Turn has a K, what worse hearts do you really think are in his range?

      I think the majority of his range comprises Ah in it. I'd expect him to fold a hand like 99 with the 9h a lot of the time on the Turn. Don't forget you block K and J of hearts, so that leaves him with stuff like K9 KT Q9 QT with the 9 or T of hearts. I think he could potentially have more combos of AhX so river is a bit dicey.

      So I think it's not very certain whether we can bet for value on the River (I still think we have the best hand enough of the time, but if you bet too large you may iso vs stronger). And if we want him to call much lighter,I think your bet size is too big. We could probably bet 33-40% of the pot and fold to a raise (cos he is just so passive).

      Thanks.
      I think you probably overestimated him, which is strange because usually I'm the one who does that vs fish, but I think I agree with you on the river 100%.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      He needs to have stuff like 8hQx/8hKx/9hKx/9hQx and some other worse hands in order to call here. I don't think he has stuff like 2hQ and 2hK given he's not 60 VPIP or more.

      If you try counting his AhX combos, it's something like
      Ah2x (4 combos)
      Ah3x (4 combos)
      Ah4x (3 combos)
      Ah5x (3 combos)
      and so on, and you get something like 40+ combos. So you need him to call over 50+ combos of worse hands which I think is super optimistic. You'll also need him to call with some non flush hands like sets or 2 pairs (i think theres a good chance he calls with KQo).