[NL20-NL50] 50fr 98s and QQ, not my hand

    • AtrociousNightmare
      Joined: 14.04.2010 Posts: 1,185
      Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BB: $50 (100 bb)
      UTG+1: $123.59 (247.2 bb)
      Hero (UTG+2): $50 (100 bb)
      MP1: $76.66 (153.3 bb)
      MP2: $18.38 (36.8 bb)
      MP3: $37.75 (75.5 bb)
      CO: $37.90 (75.8 bb)
      BTN: $50 (100 bb)
      SB: $57.88 (115.8 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with 2 5
      2 folds, MP1 raises to $1.50, 4 folds, SB calls $1.25, BB folds

      Flop: ($3.50) Q 9 9 (2 players)
      SB checks, MP1 bets $2, SB raises to $4, MP1 raises to $8.50, SB raises to $13, MP1 raises to $19, SB raises to $56.38 and is all-in, MP1 calls $37.38

      Turn: ($116.26) 6 (2 players, 1 is all-in)
      River: ($116.26) J (2 players, 1 is all-in)

      $116.26 pot ($3.00 rake)
      Final Board: Q 9 9 6 J
      MP1 showed 9 8 and lost (-$57.88 net)
      SB showed Q Q and won $113.26 ($55.38 net)

      MP1 (98s): VPIP: 22, PFR: 14, 3B: 3, AF: 2,0, Hands: 2562
      SB (QQ): VPIP: 24, PFR: 12, 3B: 4, AF: 1,4, Hands: 425

      This is actually not a hand of mine, but I saw it on the table and I wondered what I'd have done if I was the one with 98.
      So try to imagine that Hero was 98s.

      Now, it's true that SB is passive, but he also is around 4 for 3Bet.
      So when we get on this flop, we already are not inclined to think much of him on QQ, and the chances are very tiny as well.
      What else? A better 9? Very highly unlikely as well, as it'd virtually be a 4 of a kind.

      However it's a good pot for draws to raise for example, think of KT, various FDs, and why not KK-AA that got slowplayed PF like many fish like to do.

      Given this, don't we want to get it in with trips of 9 here?
  • 2 replies
    • cutegoldfish
      Joined: 19.11.2009 Posts: 4,335
      I would raise sb and mp for value with trips but when mp goes over the top I think I would fold. We don't beat many 9. For example we beat 79 maybe 69 but more often they have 9T 9J 9Q 9K.

      There will be some flush draws in his range like A2s nut flush draw. But when he plays so strongly there aren't many flush draws in his range

      More often we are beat by a better 9 so I fold 89 . However if I had A9 or K9 I would go over the top for value and shove it all in.
    • cutegoldfish
      Joined: 19.11.2009 Posts: 4,335
      If I was heads up sb vs mp I would donk/raise/raise because I expect him to play KK AA and possibly AQ and some flush draws that way.