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[NL20-NL50] NL20 SH AA bet/folded turn

    • SPeedFANat1c
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,150
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.20(BB) Replayer
      SB ($20)
      Hero ($38.67)
      UTG ($20.30)
      UTG+1 ($37.89)
      CO ($26.40)
      BTN ($18.29)

      Dealt to Hero A:diamond: A:club:

      fold, fold, CO raises to $0.60, fold, fold, Hero raises to $2.40, CO calls $1.80

      FLOP ($4.90) J:heart: 2:spade: Q:spade:

      Hero bets $3, CO calls $3

      TURN ($10.90) J:heart: 2:spade: Q:spade: 3:heart:

      Hero bets $7, CO raises to $21 (AI), Hero folds

      CO shows A:heart: Q:diamond:

      CO wins $23.66

      call vs 14% UTG PFR w QJs in CO, call cbet KJx w 2nd pair, call 1/2 Q w 2 pair when FD posible, call 1/2 7

      here in the note he did not raise with 2 pair. Maybe we can guess that he might raise weak hands if he slowplayes strong ones?

      BUt his turn aggression is low so I folded.
  • 2 replies
    • BogdanPS
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Speed,

      We do not block either of the flushes on the board which means that it's possible for him to occasionally have some suited aces that connect there, AQhh, KQhh, etc.

      We can count some QQ combos in his range and a few JJ but besides that we are actually ahead of AQ/QK. It's true that in the note we have he played more passive but it was also not a 3-bet pot so I wouldn't put much behind it.

      Now, we get roughly 27% pot odds and I would expect him to sometime shove Qx hands (like he did) for value (we can still have AK draws that we barrel, and maybe worse Qx) so I would not be able to fold here without a solid read that he is super nitty.

      And if we look at the math JJ is 3 combos and QQ (if we take all) are 3 combos as well.

      That means that he only needs to shove roughly 2 worse combos for us to be close to break even. That's it. (we can also expect him to actually raise the flop with sets some % of the time).
    • SPeedFANat1c
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,150
      hmm, but with his agression I would not have thgouth that he is necesarily raising AQ. He can bet the rivers if I don't bet myself, becuase he is so passive. Thats confusing spot for me. I agree sometimes he raises. But next time I will see sets or 2 pairs.

      My bet on turn is big. THats also a reason why I decided to fold - he shoves over my big bet - this cannot be a bluff, especially from passive guy.

      with KQ he might want a pot control so only AQ raises. KK maybe, but KK might more often raise the flop or preflop.

      So maybe the thing is I should pay attention that I don't block nut ace draws, so I can expect more bluffs. But still - I cannot understand - he migh often just call with his nut draws :)