[NL20-NL50] 55 bottom set on heavy drawy

    • franeczek
      franeczek
      Global
      Joined: 22.03.2009 Posts: 2,439
      Party, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      SB: $24.87 (49.7 bb)
      CO: $17.32 (34.6 bb)
      MP3: $50.84 (101.7 bb)
      BTN: $51.50 (103 bb)
      Hero (UTG+2): $52 (104 bb)
      MP2: $29.71 (59.4 bb)
      BB: $61.91 (123.8 bb)
      MP1: $45.10 (90.2 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with 3 3
      Hero raises to $1.50, 6 folds, BB calls $1

      Flop: ($3.25) 5 4 3 (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $2.25, BB calls $2.25

      Turn: ($7.75) J (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $6, BB raises to $15, Hero raises to $48.25 and is all-in, BB calls $33.25

      River: ($104.25) 9 (2 players, 1 is all-in)

      Results:
      $104.25 pot ($3 rake)
      Final Board: 5 4 3 J 9
      Hero mucked 3 3 and lost (-$52 net)
      BB showed 7 6 and won $101.25 ($49.25 net)



      Villian is 20/9/2.5 after 7k hands (VPIP/PFR/AF). Raise cbet both Flop and Turn kinda smallish (around 10%). Thoughts about Turn decision?? Should we consider folding here bottom set??
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi.

      while I usually don't recommend folding bottom set cos you are at the top of your range and also because when you have a set yourself, it's much less likely for your opponent not to have one, this could potentially be a spot where you fold.

      On the Turn,

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 22.30% 22.30% 0.00% 3s3c
      MP3 77.70% 77.70% 0.00% 55-33, A2s, 76s, 54s

      I believe he has virtually no bluff range here. So I think bet/fold is fine. Of course mostly because this is nit-infested full ring, people never ever semi-bluff or bluff raise the turn light here, especially at NL50.

      Thanks.