[NL2-NL10] Nl4 Fr 99

    • JohnDoe1313
      Joined: 04.01.2011 Posts: 5,035
      Party, $0.02/$0.04 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 7 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BTN: $4 (100 bb)
      BB: $4 (100 bb)
      Hero (CO): $6.37 (159.3 bb)
      MP2: $4.21 (105.3 bb)
      SB: $3.62 (90.5 bb) - VPIP: 58, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 0.93, Hands: 97
      MP3: $5.59 (139.8 bb)
      MP1: $4.16 (104 bb) - VPIP: 18, PFR: 13, AF: 4.91, Cbet: 81, Hands: 271

      Preflop: Hero is CO with 9 9
      MP1 raises to $0.12, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.12, BTN folds, SB calls $0.10, BB folds

      Flop: ($0.40) T 3 8 (3 players)
      SB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets $0.24, SB calls $0.24, MP1 folds
      As PFA checks, he is giving up most of the time so I'm betting here for value from fish and protection against overcards.

      Turn: ($0.88) 5 (2 players)
      SB bets $0.04, Hero raises to $0.52, SB calls $0.48
      Turn doesn't change anything. I think he can donk 8x, J9. I'm raising for value and for free showdown. Is sizing ok?

      River: ($1.92) Q (2 players)
      SB bets $0.04, Hero calls $0.04
      The odds are too good to fold. J9 got there, but I still think he might play 8x or something fancy like this.

      $2 pot ($0.10 rake)
      Final Board: T 3 8 5 Q
      Hero showed 9 9 and won $1.90 ($0.98 net)
      SB showed 8 K and lost (-$0.92 net)

  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694

      His AF is <1. So I think he is a lot likelier to check with 8X and draws. I would also want to pot control 99 anyway so I'll just call the Turn and decide on River (I'm folding this river if he leads out huge cos of QJ J9 Q9 all getting there).

      If river is a blank and he minbets again, I could consider a small raise. Reason why I prefer getting the 2nd bet (raise) in on the River rather than the Turn is because I think he could have more TX than 8X in his range.

      If we somehow knew he had an equal number of 8X and TX, and perhaps he sometimes call with worse PPs like 77/66/3X, then I would agree that you should raise the Turn for thin value. But I think we are unsure whether that is true or not (value meaning we have more worse hands than better hands in his calling range).