[NL20-NL50] NL25sh-QQvs flop mega overbetshove

    • urmo1
      Joined: 02.03.2008 Posts: 718
      This is snap call?

      Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BB: $13.57 (54.3 bb)
      Hero (UTG): $25 (100 bb)
      MP: $33.78 (135.1 bb)
      CO: $22.54 (90.2 bb)
      BTN: $10.50 (42 bb)
      SB: $25.10 (100.4 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q Q
      Hero raises to $0.75, 4 folds, BB calls $0.50

      Flop: ($1.60) T 5 4 (2 players)
      BB bets $12.82 and is all-in, Hero calls $12.82

      Turn: ($27.24) 4 (2 players, 1 is all-in)
      River: ($27.24) 6 (2 players, 1 is all-in)
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694

      This is definitely not a snap-call when he overbet 10X the pot. I'm wondering what are the weakest hands we should actually call here.

      I think probably AA and KK? And sets of course. The thing about this spot is that it just seems so stupid to play any value hand in this way (but the same goes for bluffs).

      Could he overplay JJ here? Maybe. AA and KK beats QQ if he somehow slowplays this preflop.

      I would think of folding QQ for sure, probably bottom of my calling range is KK. We don't need to win the pot very often when he bets so large. If you have a better read then perhaps you can think about calling instead.

      When the bet size is so overwhelmingly larger than the pot size, we should just think about whether we are ahead of villain's range on average (50% equity). With QQ, we lose to 9 combos of sets, maybe 6-12 combos of AA/KK. We beat 6 combos of JJ and we need to beat like 15 combos of worse hands like TX being overplayed. I think that QQ seems like a fold now that I think about it.

      For KK, we lose to 3-6 combos of AA (not sure how often he slowplays preflop), and 9 combos of sets. We beat QQ/JJ (12 combos) and some TX. So I think this seems like a close call here.