[NL2-NL10] I think the Turn Bet is wrong

    • Greedyfly
      Greedyfly
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.04.2010 Posts: 213
      Can anyone validate my reasoning here. First the hand:

      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.05/$0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)

      Known players:
      MP3:
      $4.00
      CO:
      $6.00
      BU:
      $32.92
      SB:
      $10.85
      BB:
      $13.45
      UTG1:
      $14.94
      UTG2:
      $10.00
      MP1:
      $10.14
      MP2 (Hero):
      $10.00


      Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q, K.
      3 folds, Hero raises to $0.30, MP3 calls $0.30, 2 folds, SB calls $0.25, BB folds.

      Flop: ($1) A, J, 3 (3 players)
      SB checks, Hero checks, MP3 checks.

      Turn: ($1) 3 (3 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $0.70, MP3 calls $0.70, SB folds.

      River: ($2.4) A (2 players)
      Hero checks, MP3 checks.

      Final Pot: $2.4.

      Results follow:

      MP3 shows two pairs, aces and nines(9c 9d).
      Hero shows two pairs, aces and threes(Qh Kh).

      MP3 wins with two pairs, aces and nines(9c 9d).


      Essentially the open raise is fine. As is the amount. The guy immediately to my left is a little weak passive with 20/12 in his stats. That being said he has folded to a CB 95% and is only going to showdown with at very least a pair. I would have preferred to have had the SB to myself as he is even more fishy at 79/0 and will call down Ace high. But it goes three ways to the flop.

      Flop. I don't think a Cbet works here enough to be a good play against two very fish opponents. The 79% is playing any two cards essentially and A and J are in his range as are most cards. The 20/12 is likely to either have a pair or at least A10 here and isn't folding to a Cbet.

      Turn: This is where I think I go wrong. I bet it. However the 3 changes nothing. Anything that may have called the flop will probably call this turn. So essentially I think I should have checked again and simply gotten a cheap river.

      Thoughts?
  • 5 replies
    • Greedyfly
      Greedyfly
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.04.2010 Posts: 213
      Sorry this should have been in the BSS section.
    • Greedyfly
      Greedyfly
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.04.2010 Posts: 213
      Sorry this should have been in the BSS section.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi.

      Just bet the Flop. You have a gutshot, and it's Ace high. You can rep AX really well and it's a 3way pot so I think if the opponent is decent, he should be folding JX here a lot of the time, assuming you are not bluff cbetting this flop with your entire range.

      Thanks.
    • Greedyfly
      Greedyfly
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.04.2010 Posts: 213
      Thanks for the input.

      My decision not to bet the flop was based very much on the fact that my opponent wasn't decent. He was lining up to be a very fish loose passive calling station. So bluff Cbetting here I think is essentially a -EV vs 2 opponents with very loose stats.

      What I am a bit so so about was the decision to bet the turn though I think I know the answer based on my sentence above. Would just like an opinion on that really.
    • kymupa
      kymupa
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.10.2009 Posts: 22,364
      Hello,

      Preflop is good.

      I think we can bet the flop here.
      According to our reads, MP will basically fold almost anything here and fish could fold its trash like T7o etc. I would more like it if we had the backdoor FD, but given the fact that if we get called it's most likely to be the fish, and we can value bet with our K/Q if we hit against him, I think betting will be fine.

      As played, I prefer checking the turn and trying to check it down.

      Best,
      Plamen