[NL2-NL10] QQ vs king high flop

    • Festfingre
      Festfingre
      Silver
      Joined: 19.07.2011 Posts: 70
      Known Players:
      MP2: $11.23 - 112 bb
      MP3: $18.12 - 181 bb
      CO: $10.00 - 100 bb
      BU: $10.00 - 100 bb
      SB: $9.75 - 98 bb
      BB: $19.61 - 196 bb

      0.05/0.10 No Limit Hold'em (6 Handed)
      Hand recorder for this hand: PokerStrategy.com SideKick 1.1.116.1

      Preflop: Hero is BB with Q:spade: , Q:club:
      SB posts small blind ($0.05), Hero posts big blind ($0.10), 2 folds, CO raises for $0.24, 2 folds, Hero 3-bets $0.70, CO calls

      Flop: ($1.65 - 16.50 bb) K:diamond: , 8:club: , 3:club: (2 Players)
      Hero bets $1, CO calls

      Turn: ($3.65 - 36.50 bb) K:spade: (2 Players)
      Hero bets $2.50, CO calls

      River: ($8.65 - 86.50 bb) A:spade: (2 Players)
      Hero checks, CO bets $5.70 and is all in, Hero folds, CO gets uncalled back ($5.70)

      Thought process is as follows:
      No reads on villain

      If he calls he either has the king or a flushdraw, draw doesn't complete on the
      turn so i make another contibet if he calls i know i'm beat.

      Question is if i should have made the second or even first contibet?

      Thanks
  • 4 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi festfingre,

      What do you expect villain to do with 99-JJ on that flop?

      What draws do you expect him to have? For example we block the Qc so if you expect him to only have Kx or draws which one is more common?
    • Festfingre
      Festfingre
      Silver
      Joined: 19.07.2011 Posts: 70
      With 99-JJ i would expect villain to fold in most cases.

      Do you think he would call? and what would he hope to accomplish?

      My main thought is that he went for a steal with either suited connectors
      or K9+, and when the draw didn't complete i guess he would have to
      have Kx to call on the turn. (Or a loose caller with nut flushdraw)

      He might also have pocket 8's or 3's, and when he got full house he
      decided to call instead of a raise on the turn.


      Am i right in anything here?
      Please correct me where i'm wrong

      Thanks
    • Festfingre
      Festfingre
      Silver
      Joined: 19.07.2011 Posts: 70
      Did not see the advice judge button :)
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by Festfingre
      With 99-JJ i would expect villain to fold in most cases.

      Do you think he would call? and what would he hope to accomplish?

      My main thought is that he went for a steal with either suited connectors
      or K9+, and when the draw didn't complete i guess he would have to
      have Kx to call on the turn. (Or a loose caller with nut flushdraw)

      He might also have pocket 8's or 3's, and when he got full house he
      decided to call instead of a raise on the turn.


      Am i right in anything here?
      Please correct me where i'm wrong

      Thanks
      In spots like this I would expect most villains to call 2nd pair type hands for one street. He would be bluffcatching as this is a flop where people bluff often (of course it hits our perceived range of AK/QQ+). As you move up in limits most people will call at least one street here with those hands.

      We also have to look at an overall range so we shouldn't say that he went for a steal with connectors and K9 and then ignore the rest of his range (pairs, Ax hands, etc). I would say that an unknown could have a pretty wide preflop calling range here and thus his range continuing the flop would be Kx (KJ/KQ/AK and some K9/KT if he is really loose), some pairs 99-JJ, some 8x, some draws ( I say some because there aren't many, AJcc, ATcc, KJcc, TJcc, some connectors).

      So on the turn, especially if you don't think 99-JJ would make it there, we are facing either a Kx hand or a draw. Now draws are very few so lets list the combos:

      AJ/AT = 2 combos, JT =1 combo, T9 = 1 combo, 76 = 1 combo (anything else either has a pair like KT/KJ or it's too weak to really consider in his range). So we are looking at about 5 combos of draws.

      Now Kx is a lot more combos. KQ alone is 2 Q x 3 K which is 6 combos. KJ is 4 J x 3 K which is 12 combos, and so on.

      So you can see that his range is skewed towards stronger hands so our turn bet doesn't really make much sense. We can't get value from much worse, we can't get him to fold better.