[NL20-NL50] NL 50 is this bluff retarded?

    • Saren113
      Saren113
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.03.2009 Posts: 2,867
      villian plays 24/22 over 568 hands. He got a high barrel freq 63 otf 77 ott. He got a WTSD % of 22%.

      I atleast block the nutflush! What will put villian in a pretty ugly spot with his two pair sets and top pairs, and his low flushes like 9Ts.


      Boss Media - Hold'em Cash Games - $1.00/2.00 Blinds - 5 Players
      Hand Converter by Pokerhand.org

      Bikten (CO): $662.25
      HERO (BTN): $221.36
      mmvisst (SB): $501.38
      Tobbe89 (BB): $361.66
      eLiite (UTG): $1,014.34

      Pre-flop: Dealt to HERO Q:heart: A:spade:
      eLiite raises to $6, (1 folds), HERO calls $6, (1 folds), Tobbe89 calls $6

      Flop: ($21) 3:heart: 5:spade: A:club: (3 Players)
      Tobbe89 checks, eLiite bets $14, HERO calls $14, (1 folds)

      Turn: ($49) 8:spade: (2 Players)
      eLiite bets $30, HERO calls $30

      River: ($109) 6:spade: (2 Players)
      eLiite bets $64, HERO all-in $171.36, (1 folds),
  • 4 replies
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      Heya,

      Any flush will snap call imo. You just have a blocker for top set and nutflush so fewer flushes in his range, doubt he'd actually fold any flush. That's way too ambitious imo since you can play sets and 2pair like this too for value, especially sets since the board looks fairly dry all the way.

      What are you expecting him to fold? Your hand is actually one of the best bluffcatchers so you really have to consider what better hands in his range are actually folding vs your shove.. all I can think of are a few Axs 2pairs maybe? A3dd, A5dd, A5hh.. don't think A8s folds and don't think A6s barrels like this. Even if A8s and A6s folds you have 7 combos of better hands that fold plus the 8 AK combos. That's a max of 15 combos you make him fold.

      He will have some hands he doesn't fold like:
      - sets (33, 55, AA) -> 7 combos
      - flushes (JTs, QTs, KTs, KJs, KQs, T9s) ->6 combos

      So it gets close... Now, thinking about whether he can have 88 in his range. Let's keep it to the best case scenario and say he doesn't.. so you make him fold 15 combos and own yourself vs 13... That's already close for a best case scenario (but +EV). However, it's rare that you face best case scenario in practice so it will become -EV imo to shove here. Apart from that, calling should be considereded against someone with such high barreling frequency imo.

      You need to be good 27% of the time. He has 28 value combos better than your hand. You nee him to have 10+ combos of worse hands that bet here. Does he have AJ? That would be already 8 combos. What about 44/22 type hands that flopped a gutshot? Can he barrel 67s? Against such a high barreling frequency your hand seems like a great call and a close to 0EV shove.
    • Saren113
      Saren113
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.03.2009 Posts: 2,867
      I checked out his barrel statistic on the river 63/77/50, I've seen him barrel total airballs. So yeah I Imagine him to be tripple barrel AJ. He can barrel with gutshots fo sure. (He got 19% open from EP.)
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      When you call:


      Board: A:club: 5:spade: 3:heart:  8:spade:  6:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    46.44%  41.07%   5.37% { AsQh }
      MP3    53.56%  48.19%   5.37% { AA, 55-22, AJs+, A8s, A5s, A3s, 76s, KsQs, KsJs, QsJs, KsTs, QsTs, JsTs, Ts9s, AJo+ }



      When you call you win 46.44% of 237 => ~110.

      If you shove you make him fold all but 14 combos so you make him fold 75% of the time.

      75% of the time you win 175 => 129 for the shove
      25% of the time you lose 171=> 43 for when you gett called so with a shove you win abouty 86. Not the best when compared to the easy call. If you had AJ with As it's prob different. Your hand is just too good of a bluffcatcher like I initially though. :)

      Cheers.
    • Saren113
      Saren113
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.03.2009 Posts: 2,867
      Ty mate!