[NL20-NL50] [SH] NL50 AQ, bluff vs fish

    • TetraQuark
      Joined: 21.05.2008 Posts: 1,520
      $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Holdem
      6 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

      UTG ($38.76) 78bb
      UTG+1 ($57.25) 115bb
      CO ($25.38) 51bb
      BTN ($50.42) 101bb
      Hero (SB) ($61.74) 123bb
      BB ($69.74) 139bb

      Pre-Flop: ($0.75, 6 players) Hero is SB Q A
      3 folds, BTN raises to $1.50, Hero raises to $5, 1 fold, BTN calls $3.50

      Flop: 5 K 9 ($10.50, 2 players)
      Hero bets $6, BTN calls $6

      Turn: K ($22.50, 2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN bets $8.50, Hero raises to $19, BTN folds

      Final Pot: $39.50

      Hero wins $48.22 (net +$18.22)

      BTN lost $19.50


      I am posting this hand cuz I cannot categorize it. Good play or too optimisitc spew?

      Villain is 34/14 AF 3.0 - Fish.

      BTN OR is 30%
      F23B on BTN is 0/2
      Bet vs missed on T ip is 100%(6)
      Turn AFq is 46%
      WTSD is 19%

      I decide to take this line cuz of two things:
      -I can probably achieve max honesty from him with this line
      -Fish play their trips a lot of times by underbetting, c/c or c/r (so I use one of his lines)

      Plan for the hand:
      -bluff is relatively cheap, if we get shoved on we have an easy fold
      -if he calls we can shove on any non heart and cards that don't complete his broadway gutters, oesds

      Relative problems with this line:
      -are we turning the best hand into bluff?
      -should we consider protecting our EQ even thoug we are ahead and is bet/bet way better in this case?
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694

      Turn is easy check/fold. All you are doing is folding out his worse hands, and getting him to call with KX. 9X checks back Turn really often. Also, KX hands don't play like that at all. You would have betted the Turn again and hope he calls with TT/9X etc. So actually you don't really rep much.

      Perhaps he is making a protection/thin value bet with 9X. That could be the case. But he could convince himself that you are c/r bluffing vs his small size and it's pretty obvious that you should never have a c/r range here, it just doesn't make too much sense on this exact card.

      With that said, this guy is a fish. So he can't hand-read in the same way as I do. It could potentially work if he is bad enough to bet/fold 9X here. I don't really know how this fish would play. Good indicators are his AF and WTSD. You put 19% there for WTSd, so maybe it isn't too bad of a play. But still I would probably c/f, and perhaps c/r is fine just because he bet Turn so weakly.