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[NL2-NL10] JJ nl4

    • ilidek
      ilidek
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.07.2010 Posts: 3,095
      CO: $3.74 (93.5 bb)
      BTN: $4.13 (103.3 bb)
      SB: $3.29 (82.3 bb)
      BB: $4.40 (110 bb)
      UTG: $3.96 (99 bb)
      Hero (MP): $5.08 (127 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is MP with J:spade: J:heart:
      UTG raises to $0.20, Hero calls $0.20, CO raises to $0.84, 4 folds, Hero raises to $1.78, CO raises to $3.74, Hero calls $1.96

      Flop: ($7.74) 9:diamond: 6:diamond: 2:spade: (2 players)
      Turn: ($7.74) 8:spade: (2 players)
      River: ($7.74) 5:spade: (2 players)

      CO: he has 44/22 1/5 3b 7h It's only 7hands but:
      1) he don't have full stack.
      2) They are a lot of dead money ~30bb
      3) I have 4th best hand

      what do you think about my line here?
  • 4 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi ilidek,

      Preflop: You don't really have the 4th best hand, you have the 4th best pair.

      I only like going broke here if there's any reason to suspect villain doing this with worse (and stacking off) or raise/folding a lot. Since we have almost 0 info on the guy and he 3-bet UTG and MP it's much closer to a fold.

      If we have 0 FE what pot odds do we get and what range do we need him to stack off with to at least break even?
    • ilidek
      ilidek
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.07.2010 Posts: 3,095
      We have 4th best hand we can have preflop. Even KQs is worse then our hand. You think he won't 3bet / SQZ for bluff? It's NL4 players here usualy don't look for position and he don't care about who is he SQZing. I know 7h is nothing but he 3b twice in 8 hands. So I may still have some FE and only AA,KK,QQ beat me anyway even vs AQ+,JJ+ I have only 36% so you think I should fold here?
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by ilidek
      We have 4th best hand we can have preflop. Even KQs is worse then our hand. You think he won't 3bet / SQZ for bluff? It's NL4 players here usualy don't look for position and he don't care about who is he SQZing. I know 7h is nothing but he 3b twice in 8 hands. So I may still have some FE and only AA,KK,QQ beat me anyway even vs AQ+,JJ+ I have only 36% so you think I should fold here?
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 46.47% 46.27% 0.19% KdQd
      MP3 53.53% 53.34% 0.19% JhJs

      You are very close to a 50/50 spot so you have a marginally better hand.

      Against a range of JJ+, AQs, AK:

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 61.62% 60.19% 1.43% JJ+, AQs+, AKo
      MP3 38.38% 36.95% 1.43% JhJs


      I personally think that against an unknown that 3-bets rather large (21 BB) we won't be in that great shape even if you want to ignore the positions. Now that doesn't mean that we may not have a small EV situation here but it's hard to judge.

      If he plays really wide we have
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 50.91% 49.98% 0.94% TT+, ATs+, KQs, AQo+
      MP3 49.09% 48.15% 0.94% JhJs


      So my question back to you would be: what range do you expect villain to stack off with and how often do you expect him to bluff/fold (versus how often he needs to fold)?
    • ilidek
      ilidek
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.07.2010 Posts: 3,095
      Ok you're right. I missed his 3b sizing. It's look like pure value.