[NL20-NL50] nl25 kj

    • urmo1
      urmo1
      Black
      Joined: 02.03.2008 Posts: 718
      42 hands. 39/12 af 2.8 limp BUT 50%(6) fold to cbet 33%(6)

      River i decided to bet smaller for value.

      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer
      SB ($25.76)
      Hero ($25)
      UTG ($25)
      UTG+1 ($53.71)
      CO ($15.82)
      BTN ($26.28)

      Dealt to Hero J:heart: K:spade:

      fold, fold, fold, BTN calls $0.25, fold, Hero raises to $1.25, BTN calls $1

      FLOP ($2.60) 6:diamond: 3:heart: T:heart:

      Hero bets $1.25, BTN calls $1.25

      TURN ($5.10) 6:diamond: 3:heart: T:heart: K:diamond:

      Hero bets $3.35, BTN calls $3.35

      RIVER ($11.80) 6:diamond: 3:heart: T:heart: K:diamond: 8:diamond:

      Hero bets $5, BTN raises to $10, Hero?
  • 4 replies
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      Hey,

      What do you expect to get value from though?

      Flop: I don't like cbetting so small. You already have a bit of info he doesn't like folding to cbets and when you make it smaller you clearly won't encourage a fold. I'd make it 1.75 or so since we have turns to continue on.

      Turn: Looks fine, bet sizing too but could get more if you had bet slightly bigger on flop.

      River: You have to think a lot about his range here. I doubt he calls Tx so it's almost impossible for you to get value if you bet. Most Kx beat you, some gutshots got there and some 2pair.. The only way to possibly get value here imo is to check/call because one pair doesn't bet, sets raise earlier so his value hands are some rivered 2pair combos, the gutshot that cmpleted or he has air/busted draw.
    • mlatasrb
      mlatasrb
      Gold
      Joined: 01.04.2012 Posts: 2,720
      Would you call that river as played? He could have busted flush draw, but I doubt that he ever bluff raises 2x bet size, so we win only against pure bluff.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      disagree here. what's his WTSD?

      i think villain could raise AK/KQ pre some % of the time. I really think he hardly has any KX in his range, calls with a ton of TX on the River still (AT QT JT T9), and hardly has any backdoor flushes. He shouldn't have too many KX besides the occasional KQ floats, maybe some KdXd or KhXh type of hands but there are still way more combos of TX which I feel he could definitely call again on the River even vs a larger bet.

      This guy limped pre, so he's a fish. And fishes hate folding even when the "scarecard" came on the turn and river, cos he has top pair on the Flop. He's not necessarily putting you on backdoor flush.
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      Originally posted by mbml
      disagree here. what's his WTSD?

      i think villain could raise AK/KQ pre some % of the time. I really think he hardly has any KX in his range, calls with a ton of TX on the River still (AT QT JT T9), and hardly has any backdoor flushes. He shouldn't have too many KX besides the occasional KQ floats, maybe some KdXd or KhXh type of hands but there are still way more combos of TX which I feel he could definitely call again on the River even vs a larger bet.

      This guy limped pre, so he's a fish. And fishes hate folding even when the "scarecard" came on the turn and river, cos he has top pair on the Flop. He's not necessarily putting you on backdoor flush.
      Just about all Kx in villain's range beats him because they are 2pair. Ofc he doesn't have lone Kx when he floats flop too often.. usually hands like Kx with hears or Kx that has a pair as well. He doesn't have K9o and K7o to call you with.. He'll have KJ that splits and KQ with backdoor straight and flush + 2 overs that beats you.

      With big WTSD you can obv value bet river but at the same time passive fish bet just about all their busted draws.

      @urmo: River is a clear fold imo btw. His range is still full of hands that can raise for value vs such a small bet. If you bet bigger it's still a fold but with such small sizing even a fish feels a hand like 86 can value raise, not just some KT, T8, straight and diamonds.