[NL20-NL50] bluff catch river vs missed gutters

    • PoincaresConjecture
      Joined: 09.10.2011 Posts: 115
      PokerStars - $0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 3 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      BB: $20.00
      Hero (BTN): $60.49
      SB: $50.00

      SB posts SB $0.25, BB posts BB $0.50

      Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero has 7:club: 5:club:

      Hero raises to $1.00, fold, BB calls $0.50

      Flop: ($2.25, 2 players) Q:club: 4:heart: A:diamond:
      BB checks, Hero bets $1.50, BB calls $1.50

      Turn: ($5.25, 2 players) 7:heart:
      BB checks, Hero checks

      River: ($5.25, 2 players) 9:club:
      BB bets $2.00, Hero calls $2.00

      villain is a fish. i call river vs missed gut shots. how to play this correctly?
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      Flop: Bet is too large. vs a 40bb stack, you can just halfpot your entire range here and on most semi-dry flops, and maybe bet 40% pot on super dry flops like A22r.

      River spot is close. You are getting 2/9,25 pot odds = 21.6%. A call here can never be too wrong, and fishes tend to bluff with smaller sizes.

      In terms of combos, we beat KT KJ JT which is 48 combos, maybe even a hand like 53s too (4 combos). We would need him to have ~ 200 combos of AX hands here. I think it's safe to say that we are beating a sufficient portion of his range.