[NL20-NL50] NL50 6max, JJ 3bet thin value b/f River

    • Anger86
      Anger86
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.08.2008 Posts: 511
      $50.00 No Limit Hold'em - 3 players

      BTN: $158.40
      SB: $63.05
      Hero (BB): $57.80

      Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BB with J :heart: J :spade:
      BTN raises to $1.50, 1 fold, Hero raises to $5.50, BTN calls $4

      Flop: ($11.25) 2 :spade: 3 :diamond: K :club: (2 players)
      Hero bets $5.50, BTN calls $5.50

      Turn: ($22.25) 5 :club: (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN checks

      River: ($22.25) 6 :heart: (2 players)
      Hero bets $7.50, BTN raises to $20, Hero folds

      Villain:
      Uploaded with ImageShack.us


      Preflop:
      I 3bet AJo+, ATs+, TT+ vs him since he calls wide.
      I'd 5bet JAM AQs, TT+ at least. (Considering other hands as well).

      Flop:
      I think Villain's flatting range her would still be pretty wide:

      Board: K:diamond: 3:heart: 2:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    57.98%  57.98%   0.00% { JJ }
      MP3    42.02%  42.02%   0.00% { TT-22, AQs, A5s-A2s, K8s+, 64s+, 53s+, 43s, AQo, KTo+ }


      Turn:
      On the turn I want to pot control. Planis to call one bet and I never expect him to bluff River. Also his stat vs missed cbet on Turn is pretty high.

      River: I don't really expect him to have Kx after he checks back Turn.
      So, it's like monsters or PP's like 77-TT.

      Monsters:

      Board: K:diamond: 3:heart: 2:spade:  5:club:  6:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    20.45%  20.45%   0.00% { JJ }
      MP3    79.55%  79.55%   0.00% { 66-22, A5s-A2s, 64s+, 53s+, 43s }


      My thin value bet:
      [combos of monsters] = 35 combos

      vs

      [77-TT] = 24 combos

      Given my ~1/3 valuebet is it OK to play this way?

      I'm not sure about thin value bet math.

      How do you like the way it's played and would you consider
      2 barreling turn given the fact Villain likes to stab turns?
  • 3 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,698
      Hi.

      Not all your assumptions are true.

      1) KX will always bet the Turn - I think KQ may/may not pot control. KJ probably pot controls. Are you really c/c-ing the Turn with QQ/JJ? Probably not.

      2) Why are you betting a 4straight river here esp with 2nd pair? Did you have a plan when he raises you here? I think you are just getting yourself into trouble. He either raises with 4X or he turned TT into a bluff here. I don't think he has too many 4X in his range cos people don't defend low cards so often.

      In your own calculations, you calculated that you are an underdog vs his calling range. So you should not even be betting for thin value cos you are value cutting yourself.

      Thanks.
    • Anger86
      Anger86
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.08.2008 Posts: 511
      Originally posted by mbml
      Hi.

      Not all your assumptions are true.

      1) KX will always bet the Turn - I think KQ may/may not pot control. KJ probably pot controls. Are you really c/c-ing the Turn with QQ/JJ? Probably not.

      2) Why are you betting a 4straight river here esp with 2nd pair? Did you have a plan when he raises you here? I think you are just getting yourself into trouble. He either raises with 4X or he turned TT into a bluff here. I don't think he has too many 4X in his range cos people don't defend low cards so often.

      In your own calculations, you calculated that you are an underdog vs his calling range. So you should not even be betting for thin value cos you are value cutting yourself.

      Thanks.
      To bet River I need to be at least 50/50, right?
      What is your plan for this hand?
      Do I cbet and try to check down?

      I didn't say enough about my opponent,
      I've seen him call flop with any bottom pair & small PP's in 3bet pots.

      His 3bet calling range I think was also low suited pretty cards.

      Some time ago he called huge cbet and T JAM w/ pretty weak
      mid pair hands, but it wasn't Kxxr. It was more of a medium (9xxs, Txxs) card suited flop.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,698
      Is he a good player?

      Vs weaker players, I prefer checking the Flop. They end up completely mis-reading your hand in this situation and will put you on air. Then they may end up calling down really light on Turns and Rivers.

      Vs better players, you could just bet your entire range here. There would still be some value in betting, because your opponent will not fold TT/88/99 if your preflop range is perceived to be wide.

      I may c/c some turns and probably c/f rivers. Of course, I need him to have a low fold to F cbet so that I can put him on a wide range of hands that are just floating the flop and trying to steal the pot later on. If his calling range is largely restricted to KX and mid pairs, and he bets the Turn, I think he mostly bets KX or stronger, and checks back the Turn with his mid pairs. This strongly weights his betting rnage towards value and you have an easy c/f.