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[NL20-NL50] Q9s FD vs raise

    • mkjmkjmkj
      Joined: 05.02.2012 Posts: 159
      PartyGaming - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      Hero (UTG): $26.12
      CO: $15.19
      BTN: $27.35
      SB: $22.99
      BB: $26.39

      SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

      Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has 9:heart: Q:heart:

      Hero raises to $0.75, fold, fold, fold, BB calls $0.50

      Flop: ($1.60, 2 players) 6:spade: T:heart: 4:heart:
      BB checks, Hero bets $1.01, BB raises to $2.50, Hero calls $1.49

      Turn: ($6.60, 2 players) J:diamond:
      BB checks, Hero bets $3.13, BB calls $3.13

      River: ($12.86, 2 players) A:diamond:
      BB checks, Hero bets $9.16, BB calls $9.16

      Hero shows 9:heart: Q:heart: (High Card, Ace) (Pre 37%, Flop 49%, Turn 36%)
      BB shows K:club: A:heart: (One Pair, Aces) (Pre 63%, Flop 51%, Turn 64%)
      BB wins $29.63

      villain 306 hands
      vpip 16
      pfr 11
      3bet 9
      call 2bet 9
      cold call 10

      fold to cbet 50 sample (3/6)

      [O] fold to turn probe {7d7s8s,6d2s5c} (2)
      [P] 3Bet range {KK+} (4)
      [P] 3Bet+ Blind vs Blind range {AA} (2)
      [P] 5bet range eff stack>80 {KK} (2)
      [P] 5Bet+ range {KK} (2)
      [P] limp {97s} (1)
      [P] RWPC range {QQ} (2)
      [F] Raised Flop Cbet w/Overpair or less & no draw (1)
      [F] Raised flop toppair vs small bet (2)

      is the river bluff bad
      i really didnt expected him to call the turn with hand he had
      i thought he had a lot pockets in his range given his call 2bet.
      when he check call the turn i thought he had showdown value but not super strong and i thoght the ace would be good to bluff on the river since i could have Ax of hearts or AJ.

      but i had hard time seing what hands in his range he would be check calling turn maybe KhJh or AhJh
  • 1 reply
    • EmanuelC16
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,909

      I don't like your small cbet sizing on the flop here. Your opponent's range consist greatly out of pocket pairs that don't fold to one small bet. Calling raise seems fine although not thrilling. On the turn, I think you have to decide to check back or to bet turn and river, never just turn since he's shown you he has some showdown value.

      If you think he folds often on the turn then you should not bet river but I'd say he folds no made hand on the turn, just air. That means my plan is either check back or bet twice.. Now, if you bet twice, your sizing is bad. You get next to no folding equity now and you win less when you win the pot often on the river. You want to bloat the pot a bit for 2 reasons:

      1. You look like a value bet all the way -> folding equity
      2. You win a bigger pot/force him to put in dead money on the turn because he folds on the river thus the bigger the pot you win on the river the better.

      @Spoiler: I wouldn't put that in his range either but once he does that on the flop, he is obv not folding on the turn when he improves. What note you can make of it is that he overvalues AK postflop without a pair.