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[NL20-NL50] NL50 6max, AJo SQZ

    • Anger86
      Joined: 17.08.2008 Posts: 511
      $50.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players

      CO: $54.95 - VPIP: 29, PFR: 21, 3B: 10, AF: 1.8, Hands: 617
      BTN: $23.45 - VPIP: 50, PFR: 5, 3B: 11, AF: 1.8, Hands: 20
      SB: $60.00 - VPIP: 20, PFR: 17, 3B: 8, AF: 3.9, Hands: 1197
      Hero (BB): $58.75 - VPIP: 24, PFR: 21, 3B: 11, AF: 5.0, Hands: 134755
      UTG: $143.95 - VPIP: 29, PFR: 13, 3B: 0, AF: 2.3, Hands: 45
      MP: $16.85 - VPIP: 47, PFR: 12, 3B: 20, AF: 1.5, Hands: 17

      Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BB with A :diamond: J :spade:
      2 folds, CO raises to $1, BTN calls $1, 1 fold, Hero raises to $5.50, 1 fold, BTN calls $4.50

      Flop: ($12.25) 5 :spade: 7 :heart: 5 :club: (2 players)
      Hero bets $6.00, BTN raises to $17.95, Hero calls $11.95

      Preflop: decent SQZing hand.

      Flop: His preflop calling range is more like AQ at best from high aces.
      There are some PP's like JJ and worse. Some SC'd, some random brodways.

      Given the stack sizes I'm getting pretty good odds for bluffcatch. 3:1 or 25% I have to be ahead to break even.

      His likely range is more polarized so I don't expect to see JJ-99 that often than random bluff overcards.

      At worst, if he jams 88-JJ, 77, A5s, 65s f.e., that is 31 combos.

      So I need roughly 10 combos that I'm ahead.
      Given the fact that range is more often bluffs, than
      medium value hands, thae I'ts a call.

      My actual thought process at the table:
      It doesn't make sense to raise better hands since his range is mostly medium value hands. He will have there mostly over cards and also worse Ax hands. AQ beats me, but that's just 12 combos.
      He is mid-stack, so probably pretty bad. I think I'm good here.
      Also these mid'stack players are spazzy on paired flops, so I call.

      My callng range here:
      77+, AJ+. Never calling KQo f.e.

  • 1 reply
    • EmanuelC16
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,909

      I agree midstackers can be quite spazzy postflop. Your analysis is sound and logical imo.. I don't think you are 100% correct but then again neither would my analysis. We have to go with estimates and you did that well based on what you know.

      I think he would jam some pairs a bit more often than you think but the biggest 'leak' in your thinking is leaving equity on the side. A hand like 86s has quite a bit of equity compared to you while you never have him that crushed. Counting combos is fine but also remember to weigh equity vs those. I believe you can be 25% ahead but make sure you realize you lose often when you draw the line at 25%. You lose 75% of the time to be BE, don't feel bad when you lose, don't tilt. Very important when making these close pot odds calls with a weak hand is to realize how seldom you actually win.