[NL20-NL50] NL50 SH - J9: my yearly raise bluff river

    • Lunitis
      Joined: 22.02.2009 Posts: 20,136
      3.4 af
      70% fold bb vs steal (19% resteal)
      7% donkbet flop (in 5 vs raise fold 2, call 2 and 3bet 1)
      47% wwsf
      17% agg% river
      30% wtsd
      48k hands

      Hero (BTN): $81.12 (162.2 bb)
      SB: $70.43 (140.9 bb)
      BB: $53.50 (107 bb)
      UTG: $50.75 (101.5 bb)
      MP: $72.44 (144.9 bb)
      CO: $50 (100 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BTN with 9:heart: J:spade:
      3 folds, Hero raises to $1, SB folds, BB calls $0.50

      Flop: ($2.25) T:diamond: Q:spade: J:diamond: (2 players)
      BB bets $2, Hero calls $2

      Turn: ($6.25) 5:spade: (2 players)
      BB bets $4, Hero calls $4

      River: ($14.25) A:diamond: (2 players)
      BB bets $7, Hero raises to $25

      I dont expect him playing a flush draw like this on the flop and the turn, and also not betting so small on the river, because i have lots of Kx on my range. I think his range its 2 pairs, KQ, KJ, maybe a 9x. Even if he have Kx i think its very hard for him to call, because i just dont get to the river with air, i have mostly showdown value like 2 pairs and K, in his view a K should check behind because wont get called by anything worst. In the end of the day i think my hand looks very much like a flush.
      Was it a correct read? Was my raise too big? Maybe a flush should raise smaller to make easier for a Kx to call.

      As i said in the topic i almost never raise river as bluff.
  • 1 reply
    • EmanuelC16
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,909

      I like your play and your thinking is good imo. You indeed never have air on river and he looks like Kx at most. That will bet call. If you think Kx folds if you raise big like you did, sizing is fine, otherwise, I think raising to about 20 should be enough. It's a board where you get 'value' (called) by Kx or better so not that many hands, especially if you actually were value raising plus you are rarely bluffing when you raise here.