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[NL2-NL10] going broke with set

    • gggeorgio
      Joined: 05.09.2007 Posts: 494
      Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
      6 players

      Stack sizes:
      UTG: $106.94
      UTG+1: $9.16
      CO: $9.52
      Button: $13.78
      Hero: $28.28
      BB: $44.44

      Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is SB with 8:club: 8:diamond:
      [color:#cc0000]UTG raises to $1[/color], 3 folds, Hero calls, BB folds.

      Flop: Q:diamond: J:club: 8:heart: ($2.25, 2 players)
      Hero checks, UTG checks.

      UTG has cbet in the past, so I went for a check/raise

      Turn: 2:diamond: ($2.25, 2 players)
      [color:#cc0000]Hero bets $1.5[/color], UTG calls.

      i think i needed to bet out here

      River: A:spade: ($5.25, 2 players)
      [color:#cc0000]Hero bets $4[/color], [color:#cc0000]UTG raises to $8[/color], [color:#cc0000]Hero raises all-in $25.78[/color], UTG calls.

      My main question is on the river, I know this guy is a decent player and he min raised me... should I just call it with my set, thinking he might have hit the unlikely straight or have a higher set himself. Normally I'm happy to go broke with a set, but looking back on this one there aren't many hands that he'd min raise with that I'm beating (maybe top two pair)
  • 4 replies
    • generals007
      Joined: 17.09.2007 Posts: 578
      From his point of view your line would look like a total bluff on the turn to me. If you had sth like AQ you'd bet flop so your check is suspicious. If he doesn't exactly put you on JJ or 88 he puts you on a bluff on the turn. But there he doesn't reraise, so he's probably got sth and wants to get more in on the river because you are oop. You bet into him, he likes it and reraises, thinking he definitely beat you but wants you to call his reraise. At that point I wouldn't think he's got KT, more like AQ himself or maybe KK, AA, which I would also doubt because he would have bet flop himself. I think he doesn't have KT because he raised it in early position pf. So i'd put him on a high pair (Aces or queens) or two pair on the river. Probably AQ or AJ. I'd go with allin too.
      9T is ofcourse not an option to think about because he raised pf.

      Would bet higher on turn though, in case he's got a draw.

    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      I´d just call.
      he could easily have KT, T9.
    • xylere
      Joined: 27.05.2007 Posts: 2,939
      Originally posted by Kaitz20
      I´d just call.
      he could easily have KT, T9.
      why would he skip a cbet with KT?

      T9 also doesn't make much sense, but possible
      i think he would raise turn though, same with most hands that beat us

      the hand which perfectly fits in the pricture is AJ)
      but who knows those nl 25 players)
    • gggeorgio
      Joined: 05.09.2007 Posts: 494
      Thanks for the comments,

      He was holding JJ, by the way.