[NL20-NL50] NL20 87s backdoor flush vs weak opponent

    • vengeance77
      Joined: 18.04.2010 Posts: 9,734
      [converted_hand][hand_history]Prima, $0.10/$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BB: $9.60 (48 bb) 40/22 3B 2 AF 1 184
      UTG: $20.30 (101.5 bb)
      MP: $11.40 (57 bb)
      CO: $62.05 (310.2 bb)
      BTN: $28.93 (144.6 bb) 19/3 CB f/t 50/29, Agg% f/t/r 22/49/48 WTSD 20, W$WSF 38 311hands
      Hero (SB): $24.29 (121.5 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is SB with 8:spade: 7:spade:
      3 folds, BTN raises to $0.40, Hero calls $0.30, BB folds

      Flop: ($1) 9:heart: J:spade: 2:diamond: (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN bets $0.60, Hero calls $0.60

      Turn: ($2.20) 3:spade: (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN bets $1, Hero calls $1

      River: ($4.20) 5:spade: (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN bets $2.10, Hero raises to $6.30, BTN raises to $26.93 and is all-in, Hero ?

      I don't like PRF 3b vs so passive player and on the flop/turn X/R to.
  • 3 replies
    • CPallo
      Joined: 12.04.2012 Posts: 4,343
      His stats indicate that he can overplay and bluff some hands on river, coz his w$sd is so low. On this case my decision would base on hero's river aggression. If you do that ch/r for bluff, too, then I'd go for call. If you never bluff ch/r river, I could see myself here facing Ax :spade: :spade: , so could be tight fold.
    • vengeance77
      Joined: 18.04.2010 Posts: 9,734
      I actually never bluff vs that type of player, because I almost never have enough FE, but cos of his stats I think that he can actually push here 2p, set. It's true that he haven't weak flushes.
    • EmanuelC16
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897

      Fold preflop.. OOP deep vs a 3% range, 78s is crap.

      Postflop is also messed up until river.. you float the weak gutshot against a tight range which doesn't make sense since you never 'bluff him later' and you don't get the odds to draw, on the turn you improve your equity and call the small bet (not weak bet imo, probably more inducing think from such a tight player) but you basically let the opponent play how he feels comfortable and use his position to the max. If you want to play this hand you need to be able to win without hitting because you don't hit often enough.. You flopped close to the best you can in the 'not hit my hand' category and you do nothing but play passively. This is probably not that bad but this is because your opponent is TOO TIGHT to ever bluff.

      In other words, you need very clear idea of how he thinks to make this extremely marginal call pre and judging by postflop play, you obviously don't have that yet.

      Regarding river, all you can do is decide if he overplays a set like this often enough to call. It's just combo counting...