[NL20-NL50] NL50 SH - 89s: picking equity on the turn

    • Lunitis
      Lunitis
      Gold
      Joined: 22.02.2009 Posts: 20,135
      26/24
      5 af
      31% steal CO
      75 fold vs 3bet (76% co)
      59% fold vs cbet flop 3b
      5/10 fold vs cbet turn 3b
      27% wtsd
      33k hands

      [converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      CO: $107.49 (215 bb)
      BTN: $19.25 (38.5 bb)
      SB: $24.29 (48.6 bb)
      Hero (BB): $74.56 (149.1 bb)
      UTG: $38.54 (77.1 bb)
      MP: $58.62 (117.2 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with 8:heart: 9:heart:
      2 folds, CO raises to $2, 2 folds, Hero raises to $6, CO calls $4

      Flop: ($12.25) 7:diamond: Q:diamond: 3:heart: (2 players)
      Hero bets $6.25, CO calls $6.25

      Turn: ($24.75) T:spade: (2 players)
      Hero ?

      I believe my FE on the turn aint great because he have lots of AQ/KQ, but i pick some decent equity and i might make 88-99-JJ fold. So should i bet or just c/f?
  • 3 replies
    • cutegoldfish
      cutegoldfish
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.11.2009 Posts: 4,335
      ill throw a continuation bet on the turn

      1. he folds often enough on the turn

      2. there are a number of hands he can fold on the turn like 99 88

      3. you can continue on the river as a bluff on K A and possibly diamonds

      4. you can continue on the river for value on river with 6 and J

      5. you can check and might be good if you hit 8 or 9 when he has a hand like AK or flush draws although this case is unlikely
    • LockONNN
      LockONNN
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.05.2010 Posts: 3,437
      Originally posted by cutegoldfish
      ill throw a continuation bet on the turn

      1. he folds often enough on the turn

      2. there are a number of hands he can fold on the turn like 99 88

      3. you can continue on the river as a bluff on K A and possibly diamonds

      4. you can continue on the river for value on river with 6 and J

      5. you can check and might be good if you hit 8 or 9 when he has a hand like AK or flush draws although this case is unlikely
      The villain's 3bet calling range is so narrow so is his fold to cbet flop 3bet pot. I think turn he has a strong range. Are you expecting a fold from JJ? We block 99, 88... I dont mind the play aggainst a larger range but he is so straight foward I don't see how can double/triple barreling be a +EV play.
    • cutegoldfish
      cutegoldfish
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.11.2009 Posts: 4,335
      I don't expect JJ to fold on the turn but what if a diamond comes and you shove? Probably he's folding the river. What if you shove on a K or an A? A lot of cards you can bluff on the river.

      And when you hit your oesd and he does have a hand you get value on the river.

      I do agree that his range is strong on turn and flop but in that case then you should just check the flop since not much is folding there.

      What happens you check and he bets? Call Oop with oesd or fold it?

      So the plan should either be something like

      1 check fold when called pre flop unless you hit the nuts

      2 bet flop and continue on favorable turns like this one.