[NL2-NL10] nl10 AJ river value

    • DrDunne
      Joined: 29.12.2010 Posts: 3,378
      Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BTN: $9.87 (98.7 bb)
      SB: $18.51 (185.1 bb)
      BB: $9.73 (97.3 bb)
      UTG: $11.71 (117.1 bb)
      MP: $4.05 (40.5 bb)
      Hero (CO): $10 (100 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is CO with A J
      2 folds, Hero raises to $0.30, BTN calls $0.30, 2 folds

      Flop: ($0.75) J 3 9 (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.55, BTN calls $0.55

      Turn: ($1.85) 7 (2 players)
      Hero bets $1.25, BTN calls $1.25

      River: ($4.35) 4 (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN checks

      $4.35 pot ($0.20 rake)
      Final Board: J 3 9 7 4
      BTN mucked J K and lost (-$2.10 net)
      Hero showed A J and won $4.15 ($2.05 net)

      villain is 19/13 over 78 hands.

      do i have a thin value bet on the river here? i wasn't sure if villain would call 3 streets with a weaker hand.
  • 3 replies
    • acetbfish
      Joined: 11.03.2011 Posts: 804
      I think that it is a bet-fold situation. Since he is calling from the button against your Co raise, he could easily have QJ,J10,J8s. And since he is probably a straight forward reg he might have raised the turn if he had J9, or a set (I don't think that this type of player could have 108 here).
    • DrDunne
      Joined: 29.12.2010 Posts: 3,378
      yeah i agree. i didnt think too much, i just checked without a plan. check calling sucks, as does check/folding so bet/fold is much more appealing!

      and yeah he raises sets on the turn to protect from the draws. didn't consider this
    • BogdanPS
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi DrDunne,

      Preflop: looks fine

      Postflop: flop and turn look fine but I think we are losing value on the river.

      Villain can still have some slowplayed sets but also JT/JQ/JK and even TT.

      So we should bet fold about 2.5 or so.