Mathematically beatable?

    • ThePuppetmaster
      ThePuppetmaster
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.10.2010 Posts: 191
      First thing, sorry for my bad english.

      I have played the 1$/3$ cash game recently at the crown casino.
      Buy In ranges from 50$ - 200$.
      Rake is 10%, 12$ cap.
      Also you have to pay 5$ to sit down at the table.

      The game is really weak, average V$PIP is about 40$, some really bad plays, for exsample.

      I had KK on the button, 3 players limp in, i raise 20$ (7BB!), 4 players call (my stack was 60$), flop comes QJ6r, a player goes all in with 50$ left, (so he called 2/7 of his stack preflop), shows J6.

      okay, just so you have an idea. But! even the players on these tables are so weak, i talked with a few people and they told me that the game is mathematically unbeatable, because of the high rake and the low Buy-Ins.

      Is that true? Is it possible that this game is unbeatable, even though the players are so bad? Can somebody do the maths or something? Maybe somebody already played there and knows if it's possible to make money in the long run.

      I appreciate your help,
      Puppetmaster.
  • 11 replies
    • legand73
      legand73
      Gold
      Joined: 01.06.2010 Posts: 4,135
      Hey Puppetmaster

      I'd say that mathematically the game is still beatable. It all depends on how big your edge is. The casino in my city is like this too heaps of the guys limp in so it's harder to get to a flop heads up with someone. You have to just raise it higher to get the desired folds.

      I think the dynamics just means that you need to adapt. At my casino for example heaps of guys limp to see a flop but then fold when they miss and those that do stay in don't bet proportional to the pot so your pot odds when you have a drawing hand are so good. So yeah i imagine it is still beatable, it just might be challenging and a lot different to online games that you're used to

      Regards,

      Luke
    • Rahica
      Rahica
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.06.2011 Posts: 149
      If people are calling a raise with J6o it means you do have a big enough edge against them, so it shouldn't be a problem in beating this game.

      On the other hand, I've never seen in my entire life a casino taking 10% of the pot ( even if it's capped in $12 ). It's outrageous, normally casinos should take between 1% in the biggest limits to 5% in the "micros" , but with 10%, you're being robbed.

      All in all, the game is beatable, but you should find another casino to play in, as you're losing a big part of your edge by giving it to the casino.

      Cheers !
    • metza
      metza
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.01.2012 Posts: 2,220
      Originally posted by Rahica
      If people are calling a raise with J6o it means you do have a big enough edge against them, so it shouldn't be a problem in beating this game.

      On the other hand, I've never seen in my entire life a casino taking 10% of the pot ( even if it's capped in $12 ). It's outrageous, normally casinos should take between 1% in the biggest limits to 5% in the "micros" , but with 10%, you're being robbed.
      In New Zealand every town's casino is 10% w 5bb cap usually. Because there is never more than one big casino in every city (none in the capital, where I live ?( ) they have no competition so they can do this for the rake.

      But the games are still very beatable. In NL200 I played there was lady with $100 stack. Of course someone has straddled because 50% of the players learn all their poker from the Big Game and don't realize a straddle is -EV especially with 0 postflop skills and think its super baller to straddle. Someone raises the $6 straddle to $20, she 3bets to $40, raiser shoves $150. She has to call $60 to win $140. Instead she open folds AK. Confused raiser shows QQ.

      If it is mixed (1 Round hold'em/1 Round PLO) its even better.
      I had nuts with KKT9 on QJ65A and some guy min4bet/calls me all-in on river with AQxx.

      Another guy dropped $200 with 3 :heart: in his hand, two on the board and thought he had nut flush. Dealer says "I already told you you can't use three cards, you don't have a flush". Guy rage quits.
      :facepalm:

      So yea its definitely profitable. Live NL200 Players < Online NL2 Players :f_biggrin:
    • Rahica
      Rahica
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.06.2011 Posts: 149
      Wow ! Didn't know that this casinos exist.. 10% is a lot.. I've been in a lot of countries until now but I've never seen a casino raking 10%.. I think it all depends about competition. If there is another casino in town, they can drop the 10% to something more acceptable to make poker players go there...

      Funny stuff that Omaha story.. The dealer rocks :) ))))))))))))))))))
    • ipeaceonu
      ipeaceonu
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.06.2007 Posts: 232
      My local U.K casinos flip between 10% and $5 cap or 5% £10 cap at 1/2 and 1/1 (don't often see higher limit games)
    • legand73
      legand73
      Gold
      Joined: 01.06.2010 Posts: 4,135
      Just separated the thread, because it was getting a bit off track
    • ThePuppetmaster
      ThePuppetmaster
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.10.2010 Posts: 191
      okay, thank you guys for your answers...

      at first i played with only 20BB and tried to played standard SSS, but i think the game comes profitable when you buy in for the full 66BB. (easy, rake for an all in pot is 12$, no matter if there is 120$ or 400$ in the pot). Since i dont have the right BR to play it with 200$ BI, i stopped it...

      legand73, where is the other part of the thread?
    • UPAY4DINNER
      UPAY4DINNER
      Silver
      Joined: 27.09.2009 Posts: 21,945
      Originally posted by ThePuppetmaster
      okay, thank you guys for your answers...

      at first i played with only 20BB and tried to played standard SSS, but i think the game comes profitable when you buy in for the full 66BB. (easy, rake for an all in pot is 12$, no matter if there is 120$ or 400$ in the pot). Since i dont have the right BR to play it with 200$ BI, i stopped it...

      legand73, where is the other part of the thread?

      Right here :)
    • GraemeDR
      GraemeDR
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.01.2011 Posts: 156
      For me, it doesn't matter if its mathematically beatable, it's just not worth the effort to beat it with that rake! My local casinos all have 50p and £1 blinds with rake set at 5% of the pot capped at £5. (Which is approximately $0.80 and $1.60 blinds and a cap if around $8. Min buy in £20 max £100 ($32-$160).

      The standard of play and everyone limping is something I think happens in small but in games at almost all casinos.
    • zumpar
      zumpar
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.02.2012 Posts: 1,185
      Originally posted by metza
      So yea its definitely profitable. Live NL200 Players < Online NL2 Players :f_biggrin:


      this


      its pretty hard adjusting sometimes tho
    • elchipriota
      elchipriota
      Silver
      Joined: 06.06.2012 Posts: 438
      Originally posted by ipeaceonu
      My local U.K casinos flip between 10% and $5 cap or 5% £10 cap at 1/2 and 1/1 (don't often see higher limit games)
      G casino is like that, and unfortunately where I am from is the only casino available :evil: