[NL2-NL10] nl4sh AA IP,river set

    • EnterG
      EnterG
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.01.2010 Posts: 632
      Boss, $0.02/$0.04 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      CO: $4.83 (120.8 bb)
      BTN: $13.14 (328.5 bb)
      SB: $5.27 (131.8 bb)
      BB: $2 (50 bb)
      Hero (UTG): $3.92 (98 bb)
      MP: $4.12 (103 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is UTG with A A
      Hero raises to $0.16, 3 folds, SB calls $0.14, BB folds

      Flop: ($0.36) T 7 K (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $0.32, SB calls $0.32

      Turn: ($1) 3 (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $0.76, SB calls $0.76

      River: ($2.52) A (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $1.68, SB raises to $4.03, Hero calls $1.00 and is all-in

      Results:
      $7.88 pot ($0.78 rake)
      Final Board: T 7 K 3 A
      SB showed Q J and won $7.10 ($3.18 net)
      Hero showed A A and lost (-$3.92 net)


      Opponent is an abc player.stats :
      vpip/pfr/3bet pre/af/wts/w$sd = 17/11/2.1/1.3/26/41 on 740 hands.
      Should i bet this river ? Only JQ could beat me.But i beat so many hands.Also i don't think opponent could bluff a missed FD for example.Maybe i should c/c river ? Or c/fold to a shove ?
      Bet sizes ?

      Thanks !
  • 6 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi EnterG,

      Preflop: looks fine

      Postflop: flop cbet is fine but I would also bet the turn slightly larger.

      While we do beat many hands on the river what hands (that we beat) would check shove there?

      Can you see him playing AK or AQ or AT like that? Or even a slowplayed set? I doubt it.

      These nits never bluff in spots like this and also don't raise thin for value. SO that's usually the nuts and since QJ gets there that's what you will see every time.
    • EnterG
      EnterG
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.01.2010 Posts: 632
      Sorry i made a mistake.Bet/fold river or check behind ?What is the best move ?
      If i bet am i commited to call ?

      Thanks !
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by EnterG
      Sorry i made a mistake.Bet/fold river or check behind ?What is the best move ?
      If i bet am i commited to call ?

      Thanks !
      As a side note, it appears that I missed your reply to the other hand because the "advise judge to take another look" button was not pressed (after you replied. For future reference, if you could please hit the above mentioned button and then we won't miss the replies (the hand turns from evaluated to a big ! so we can all see it).


      You are only committed to call if there's a chance that villain can do this with worse.

      If you would of bet bigger flop/turn we could have shoved the river.

      As played bet/fold half pot is better than checking behind.
    • EnterG
      EnterG
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.01.2010 Posts: 632
      As played bet/fold half pot is better than checking behind.


      I have 1$ behind.Am i commited to call or a half bet pot/fold is ok there ? I have invested 3/4 of my stack already.
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by EnterG
      As played bet/fold half pot is better than checking behind.


      I have 1$ behind.Am i commited to call or a half bet pot/fold is ok there ? I have invested 3/4 of my stack already.
      If you know you are behind 100% of the time when he shoves how can we be committed? It all comes down to pot odds.

      So for example we call $1 to win $8 total that means that we get 12.5% pot odds. If we know/think that we are always beat that means 0% equity and thus lower than pot odds.

      of course, the better the pot odds the less often we need to good but people like him will almost never shove a worse hand than ours.

      If you don't know if you can bet/fold or not just shove the money in or check back.
    • Philfox1985
      Philfox1985
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2010 Posts: 934
      This looks like it should just be a river shove for value. Its never a check, unless you think we are ahead of less than 50% of his calling range, which is surely not the case with possible sets, 2p, TPTK etc out there.

      That being said, if I did bet it this way I'm NEVER folding for 12.5% equity when there is only a single hand in the deck that can beat us. Sure I wouldn't be that confident, and would expect to see QJ most of the time, but we only need to win 1/8 times to break even on that call.

      All it takes is for our opponent to sometimes shove sets (I would shove every set for value here) and we have the right odds, or maybe the odd wild bluff with a missed flush draw.