[NL20-NL50] NL25 SH: overbet AI on river

    • Philipvw
      Joined: 28.05.2007 Posts: 578
      Known players: (for a description of vp$ip, pfr, ats, folded bb, af, wts, wsd or hands click here)

      0,10/0,25 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Texas Grabem 1.9 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is BU with Q:heart: , T:heart:
      MP2 calls $0,25, MP3 folds, CO calls $0,25, Hero raises to $1,50, 3 folds, CO calls $1,25.

      Flop: ($3,60) Q:spade: , T:club: , 5:heart: (2 players)
      CO bets $0,25, Hero raises to $3,00, CO calls $2,75.

      Turn: ($9,60) T:spade: (2 players)
      CO bets $0,25, Hero calls $0,25.

      River: ($10,10) K:heart: (2 players)
      CO checks, Hero bets $33,57 (All-In), CO folds.

      Final Pot: $43,67

      Against bad opponents who might have a second best hand, i sometimes overbet, hopeing that they will make a huge mistake. I don't need many calls for this to be profitable. What do you think? Prolly works only on the lowlimits, because it needs bad opponents.
  • 1 reply
    • swissmoumout
      Joined: 23.02.2007 Posts: 3,385
      Hi Philip,
      This is a bad spot for an overbet because:
      • There were no draws, hence you cannot represent a bluff
      • Few hands will min-bet all the way and still be good enough to call all-in
      • You have only 3x the pot, so this needs to work way too often to be profitable, compared to a 7$ value bet

      Typical spots for an overbet are when there's a straight on the board and you hold the nuts, or when you have quads on a three-of-a-kind board, etc. and definitely only when the pot is tiny (less than 10bb ideally), because it won't work often. Remember when calculating odds in that spot that you're not comparing +100bb (or whatever your stack is) to 0bb, but to whatever size valuebet you'll make - in this case, 33$ vs ~4$ (supposing he'll call 8$ half the time, which is obviously just an estimation - not sure if you can define precisely how often he'll call). Anyway, point is, don't overbet-shove in medium-sized pots. Hope that made sense ^^

      Also, raise the turn to make the pot bigger on the river. If he has a draw, he will call a 2/3 pot raise, and probably also will with Qx, and definitely with Tx.